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Homeracing

Keeler Johnson's picks and plays Sept. 27

Profile Picture: J. Keeler Johnson

September 27th, 2022

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Tuesday, Sept. 27 at Presque Isle Downs and Horseshoe Indianapolis, along with tickets for the mandatory-payout $18,034 Super High 5 carryover at Assiniboia Downs.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

  • Trifecta Tuesday: Receive a 15% bonus on trifecta winnings (excluding stake amount; up to $25 per day) on every Tuesday from Aug. 2 through Oct. 4.

Picks and Plays

Presque Isle Downs: Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs on Tapeta, 2:51 p.m. ET)

#6 Colonel Poppy (7-2) is a logical contender after cracking the trifecta in his first three starts over this track and class level, but the chestnut colt hasn’t finished within 3 1/2 lengths of victory, and his career-best 63 Brisnet Speed rating is five points shy of the 68 rating that stands as the par winning figure for Tuesday’s conditions.

Let’s try to beat Colonel Poppy with the first-time starter #5 Good Fortune (4-1). Trainer Todd Beattie (a 20% winner at Presque Isle this meet) wins at a respectable 10% rate with first-time starters, and Presque Isle’s leading jockey Pablo Morales (a 26% winner this meet) is named to ride.

  • $20 to win on #5 Good Fortune
  • $10 Exacta: 5 with 6
    Total: $30

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 3: Allowance (five furlongs on turf, 3:32 p.m. ET)

#7 True Jedi (2-1) has lots of tactical speed and enters in hot form. Two starts back, he wired a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight over the Ellis Park turf course, defeating a next-out winner by three-quarters of a length. Then True Jedi ran third by 1 3/4 lengths in a 5 1/2-furlong grass allowance at Colonial Downs.

True Jedi brings sharp Brisnet Speed ratings to the table and looks capable of out-sprinting #1 Of the Moment (5-1) and #5 Maters N Taters (7-2) to the finish line. We’ll play exacta and trifecta tickets, designing the latter to capitalize on the Trifecta Tuesday promotion.

  • $10 Exacta: 7 with 1,5 ($20)
  • $5 Trifecta: 7 with 1,5 with 1,5 ($10)
    Total: $30

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 6: Maiden Special Weight (one mile, 5:05 p.m. ET)

#1 King Ice (9-5) has been facing tougher competition than he’ll encounter in this maiden special weight for Indiana-bred juveniles. He exits a sixth-place finish in the one-mile Kentucky Downs Juvenile Mile S. against non-state-restricted company over the Kentucky Downs turf course.

King Ice is adding Lasix for his first dirt try, and his pedigree suggests the surface switch will be a positive. We’ll bet King Ice over #7 Mas Oro (5-1) in a cold exacta.

  • $20 Exacta: 1 with 7

Carryover Watch

Presque Isle Downs, Race 4: $1,815 Pick 5 carryover (2:51 p.m. ET)

The 50-cent Late Pick 5 at Presque Isle Downs boasts a $1,815 non-jackpot carryover. We’ve already highlighted Good Fortune (see above) as a nice-priced win threat in the first leg of the sequence, but for more insights into the five races, check out Dick Powell’s Presque Isle Downs Selections and Analysis for Sept. 27.

Assiniboia Downs, Race 7: $18,034 Super High 5 carryover (11:35 p.m. ET)

The penultimate day of the Assiniboia Downs meet features a mandatory-payout CAN$ 24,526 (US$ 18,034) Super High 5 carryover.

The 20-cent wager is available to play in the final race of the evening—in this case, Race 7, a $5,000 claimer for horses who have never won two races. Nine horses have entered the 7 1/2-furlong dirt dash, which means bettors must decipher 15,120 possible outcomes.

The morning line favorite is the class-dropping #6 Impressive Sense (5-2), a four-year-old gelding slated to be ridden by Renaldo Cumberbatch, a 23% winner at Assiniboia this meet. Impressive Sense has competed in seven straight allowance sprints at Assiniboia this year, cracking the trifecta three times and posting Brisnet Speed ratings in the 70-75 range on six occasions. Dropping into the claiming ranks should make Impressive Sense a formidable contender.

But Impressive Sense isn’t the only horse bringing sharp Brisnet Speed ratings to the table. #9 Guaranteeddelivery (3-1) has been riding a hot streak for high-percentage trainer Carl Anderson, a 23% winner at Assiniboia who strikes at a 41% rate in claiming races. Guaranteeddelivery posted a 76 Brisnet Speed rating when wiring a $6,250 claimer over one mile at Assiniboia, then threw down a 71 when beaten a head in a seven-furlong sprint over the same track and class level.

We also have to highlight #4 Jacks Willie (8-1) as a longshot with a chance to factor. The three-year-old gelding ran into traffic trouble when finishing seventh in his most recent run, but two starts back he came home third in a $12,500 claimer sprinting seven furlongs at Assiniboia Downs. The latter effort produced a respectable 71 Brisnet Speed rating, so a top-three finish is a possibility if Jacks Willie works out a clean trip for the hot jockey/trainer duo of Tyrone Nelson and Marvin Buffalo.

Here’s how we’ll bet the Super High 5:

  • 20-cent Super High 5: 6,9 with 6,9 with 2,3,4 with 2,3,4 with ALL ($12)
  • 20-cent Super High 5: 6,9 with 2,3,4 with 6,9 with 2,3,4 with ALL ($12)
  • 20-cent Super High 5: 6,9 with 6,9 with 2,3,4 with ALL with 2,3,4 ($12)
    Total: $36

Good luck!

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