Keeneland selections and analysis for Friday, April 21 [$859,585 Carryover]
Backing our top three selections in the Late Pick 5 would have cashed you a $10K payout Thursday at Keeneland ... As for the Pick 6, we whiffed on Ministerial in leg 1 and no one hit all six legs of the sequence.
Thus, Friday at Keeneland, we have $859,585 on the line in the Pick 6!
Let's get to it!
#3 Shadrack (7-5): Makes first start with Caio Caramori after placing second at today’s distance in an allowance optional claimer at Sam Houston Jan. 20. Recorded 88 and 95 BRIS figures in last two starts. Comes off a more than three-month layoff to try Keeneland first time. Reylu Gutierrez (17% winner with routes) will pick up the mount. Seven-year-old owns 6-1-3-1 record at today’s distance.
#5 P H Factor (6-1): Weakened to finish fifth last out at a mile on Turfway’s all-weather. Two back, the seven-year-old wired an $18K claimer at the same track. Will switch to dirt from AW — a winning move 17% of the time for Jesus Esquivel — in the gelding’s third start with the trainer, who strikes at a 23% clip at claiming level. Gerardo Corrales will retain the mount. Bullet five-furlong workout April 14. War Front grandson is 8-for-15 from today’s distance.
#6 Test Pilot (10-1): Moves up in class off a win in one-mile allowance at Mahoning Valley over sloppy ground in which Daredevil four-year-old recorded a career-best 84 BRIS figure. Will switch back to Luis Saez, a 28% winner in routes and a 21% winner this meet. Eddie Kenneally is a 17% winner with horses coming off layoffs of 46-90 days and a 19% winner at claiming level.
#4 Tapage (8-1): Beaten a nose last out at a mile and 70 yards in $15K claimer at Fair Grounds before transferring to barn of Joe Sharp, a 13% winner first off the claim. Makes first start in 48 days and will get Tyler Gaffalione. Sharp trio of workouts at Keeneland. Tapit six-year-old owns 8-2-2-1 record at today’s distance.
#3 Presider (9-2): Two back, the Connect colt came home third at today’s distance in a $65K maiden special weight and recorded an 84 Brisnet Speed figure. Drops into a maiden claimer, a winning move 28% of the time for Cherie DeVaux, who strikes at a 25% rate first time at this class level. Three-year-old can improve in first start in 48 days. Tyler Gaffalione will pick up the mount.
#10 Patrolman (3-1): Raced at a mile in last two when trained by John Ortiz. Makes first start for Brad Cox and drops to maiden claiming level (32% winning move for Cox) off a more than two-month layoff. Luis Saez will pick up the mount.
#1 Magnificus (6-1): Second at today’s distance with a 76 Brisnet Speed figure in a $40K maiden claimer over a muddy Oaklawn track last out March 12. Moves up in class and can benefit from a rider switch to Irad Ortiz Jr., a 27% winner with routes. Rail post is winning at a 20% clip.
Also consider for horizontals:
#8 Barrelhouse (15-1): Third last out in 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight and may improve in first dirt route. Mike McCarthy is a 28% winner first-time maiden claiming. Florent Geroux (22% routes) will pick up the mount. Sharp works ahead of first start in 51 days.
#4 Rush Center (4-1): Highest last race speed rating (78) when distant fifth in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Fair Grounds March 2. Grant Forster is a 26% winner with horses coming off a layoff of 46-90 days but just 1-for-18 with first-time route runners. Sharp four-furlong workout April 15. James Graham will retain the mount.
#3 Royal Take Charge (2-1): Unbeaten in two starts, including at today’s distance last out in an allowance optional claimer at Fair Grounds Jan. 16. Recorded 89 Brisnet Speed figure, the highest last race speed rating among the field, and Al Stall is an 18% winner with horses that won their last race, plus a 16% winner at the allowance level. Brian Hernandez (14% winner this meet) will retain the mount. Pair of sharp four-furlong workouts April 4 and 14.
#5 Ravella (4-1): Beaten as the favorite in last two when racing a mile and at today’s distance on Turfway’s all-weather. William Morey is a 25% winner with horses switching from AW to dirt and a 19% winner at allowance level. Gerardo Corrales will stay in the saddle in the Liam’s Map filly’s second dirt start.
#2 Jump Into the Fire (7-2): Makes first start since a distant second as the favorite in an allowance at Churchill last June. Ben Colebrook is a 16% winner with horses coming off long layoffs and a 13% winner at the allowance level. Morning works indicate the Runhappy mare will be ready for her five-year-old debut. Went 6-4-2-0 in 2022.
Will fade morning line favorite Illiogami (8-5) off the layoff.
#2 Autism Community (6-1): Posted BRIS figures in 73-82 range in four career starts. Last out, Kitten’s Joy three-year-old came home fourth in $70K maiden special weight on Turfway’s all-weather. Lone start on dirt was on debut, when third at Golden Gate last November. Jonathan Wong is a 24% winner second off the layoff and a 19% winner second time with Lasix. Yoel Navas (4-0-1-0 this meet) will pick up the mount.
#1 Loved (2-1): Fourth to next-out winner Green Up in lone start, a six-furlong maiden special weight at Gulfstream March 2022. Brendan Walsh is a 12% winner first at a route and a 13% winner second career start. Tyler Gaffalione will retain the mount in Medaglia d’Oro filly’s first start in over a year. Has looked sharp in trio of workouts at Keeneland. Rail post winning at 25% clip.
#7 Forever After All (3-1): Fourth last out in a $100K maiden special weight at Keeneland in October. Connect filly can improve off the long layoff for Al Stall and will get a rider switch to Flavien Prat (21% winner this meet and 30% winner with routes).
Consider for horizontals:
#8 Awesome Ally Vee (9-2): Posted 75 and 77 BRIS figures when second in last two at a mile in $90K maiden special weights at Oaklawn in March. Switches to high-percentage jockey Luis Saez, 28% winner with routes, but Michael Lauer is just a 6% winner in last 333 maiden special weight races.
#4 Magic Palace (9-2): Placed second and third in pair of starts at a mile or farther. Was second last out at today’s distance in $50K maiden special weight at Fair Grounds March 8. Grant Forster is a 10% winner third off the layoff and a 20% winner in routes. James Graham will retain the mount.
#3 Cadamosto (7-2): Tracked in midpack then yielded between horses entering the lane to finish last of nine in Woodford (G2) last out in October. Eligible to improve in second start with Mark Casse (17% winner this meet) and will race on Lasix the first time. Florent Geroux will pick up the mount.
#4 Gregory’s Pride (9-2): Returns off a more than two-month layoff after finishing fifth by 2 3/4 lengths in 6 1/2-furlong allowance at Santa Anita; recorded 89 Brisnet Speed rating — highest last race speed figure among the field. Was beaten a nose, a neck, and a half-length in last three at five furlongs on turf. Posted pair of fast recent workouts at Keeneland, and Phil D’Amato is a 19% winner with horses coming off a layoff of 46-90 days. Flavien Prat will pick up the mount.
#5 True Jedi (8-1): Failed as favorite in last two but has looked sharp in workouts leading up to first start in nearly six months. The Carpe Diem colt broke his maiden at today’s distance three back at Ellis Park. Bullet four-furlong workout April 14. Chris Davis is a 30% winner with beaten favorites and Irad Ortiz Jr. will pick up the mount.
Will take a stand against #7 High Front (3-1), who hasn’t raced in 10 months and last won in a five-furlong maiden special January 2022.
AE of note:
#13 Red Hot Rod (6-1): Won a six-furlong maiden special weight on Turfway’s all-weather. Wesley Ward an 18% winner with horses racing on turf the first time and a 32% winner second off the layoff. John Velazquez named to ride.
#14 Foliage (12-1): Can improve in second start for Tom Drury and second start off the layoff. Joe Talamo will retain the mount.
#4 Appeal Denied (5-2): Beaten a neck by a next-out winner in six-furlong claimer at Fair Grounds last out while recording a 96 Brisnet Speed rating, the highest last race speed figure among the field. Switches to high-percentage jockey Tyler Gaffalione, and trainer Greg Foley is a 16% winner with sprints.
#1 Morning Cup (2-1): Set the early pace then got headed with a quarter-mile to go and gave way in final furlong to finish fourth in a one-mile allowance at Fair Grounds Feb. 21. Will cut back in distance for Al Stall, a 15% winner in sprints in the Hard Spun gelding’s first start in two months. Will pick up Irad Ortiz Jr., a 25% winner with sprint distances and a 16% winner this meet. Pair of fast workouts April 3 and 14.
#3 Stand For Freedom (6-1): Romped to 4 1/4-length victory at today’s distance on Turfway’s all-weather in a $50K maiden claimer. Ian Wilkes is a 22% winner with horses switching from AW to dirt and a 14% winner with runners coming off a maiden win. American Freedom colt is 2-1-0-1 from today’s distance and will stick with regular rider Chris Landeros.
#8 Check Engine Light (9-2): Winless in four starts, but the Uncle Mo filly was beaten a nose two back when racing a mile in an $80K maiden special weight and can improve with the cutback in distance. Jorge Abreu is a 20% winner with horses coming off a layoff of 46-90 days and a 14% winner second time racing on Lasix. Switches to rider Luis Saez, a 23% winner in sprints.
#1 Coppa Girl (4-1): By Constitution (18% sire win rate with first-time starters), the three-year-old is out of a mare who has a winner and two starters. Brad Cox is a 24% winner at maiden special weight level, and Florent Geroux has gone 8-3-1-1 the last 14 days paired with Cox.
#2 Truly Grateful (9-2): By Violence (19% sire win rate first-time starters) out of a dam who has produced five winners from six starters, including a stakes winner. Michael Stidham is a 17% winner with first-time starters and an 18% winner in maiden special weights. Irad Ortiz Jr. named to ride.
Also consider for horizontals:
#4 Hidewright Away (20-1): Led at the stretch in last two but ultimately placed second in both when racing seven furlongs. Can improve with slight cutback in distance and a rider switch to Reylu Gutierrez, a 20% winner with pacesetter types. City Zip granddaughter posted sharp four-furlong workout April 14. Lynn Cash is an 18% winner with sprints and a 15% winner with shippers.
#6 Sassy Walker (10-1): Sharp works ahead of debut for Phil D’Amato, who’s 2-for-2 to start the meet and an 18% winner at maiden special weight level. By Munnings, whose first-time starters are winning at a 16% clip. Flavien Prat named to ride.
#3 Viareggio (3-1): Won in 1 1/8-mile Group 3 event last out at The Curragh Aug. 27. Makes first U.S. start for Brendan Walsh off a more than seven-month layoff. Walsh is a 16% winner with shippers to the U.S. and a 19% winner with horses coming off a long layoff. Tyler Gaffalione (25% winner this meet) will pick up the mount and is 2-for-5 paired with Walsh the last 14 days. Will race on Lasix.
#2 Fast as Flight (2-1): Five-year-old mare was beaten 1 1/4 lengths when fourth in the one-mile Honey Fox (G3) last out at Gulfstream March 4. Comes off a 48-day layoff for Brian Lynch, a 16% winner in turf starts. Won at today’s distance four back in an allowance at Churchill Nov. 3. Irad Ortiz Jr. will retain the mount.
#1 Juncture (4-1): Four-year-old filly won last out in a stakes in Ireland Nov. 4 and will make first U.S. start for Brad Cox, a 15% winner with shippers to the U.S. and a 25% winner with horses coming off a layoff of 90 days or more. Two back, he placed third to Viareggio in Group 3 contest at The Curragh. Florent Geroux (15% winner on turf) will pick up the mount. Sharp workouts April 2 and April 15 at Churchill.
Also consider for horizontals:
#4 Justify My Love (8-1): Six-year-old drops in class off distant seventh in Pegasus World Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G3). Two back, gray mare won by a neck at today’s distance in allowance optional claimer at Churchill in November. Paulo Lobo is a 23% winner at allowance level and a 17% winner this meet. Vincent Cheminaud will regain the mount and won with Sunday Silence granddaughter two back.
#8 Trail Ridge Road (15-1): Point of Entry four-year-old came home third in Albert M. Stall Memorial Stakes two back at Fair Grounds while posting a 90 BRIS figure, then finished far back last out at same distance in another $100K stakes. May improve with rider switch to Flavien Prat (21% winner this meet). Chris Block is a 17% winner at allowance level, and filly is 4-2-0-1 from today’s distance.
#2 Green Up (3-1): Last seen finishing far back in fourth in Cotillion (G1) at Parx in September. Two back, the Upstart filly won by 3 3/4 lengths over today’s race rival Interstatedaydream while recording a 104 Brisnet Speed rating at a mile and 70 yards in the Cathryn Sophia Stakes. Will return off a more than six-month layoff and has looked good in morning works. Todd Pletcher is a 19% winner in graded stakes and a 23% winner with horses coming off a long layoff. Irad Ortiz Jr. will stick with the four-year-old, who is 2-for-3 at today’s distance.
#4 Interstatedaydream(6-5): Morning line favorite returned off a nearly eight-month layoff to race in Azeri (G2) and came home third, 2 3/4 lengths behind Secret Oath, at Oaklawn. Multiple graded stakes winner can improve second off a layoff and will keep regular rider Florent Geroux, who’s 3-for-8 paired with Cox the last 14 days. Classic Empire filly owns 5-2-1-2 record at today’s distance, including a graded stakes victory.
#3 Frost Point (12-1): Moves up in class off a win in one-mile Heavenly Prize Invitational Feb. 18. Recorded a 97 BRIS figure with a 111 Late Pace rating. Bill Mott is an 18% winner in graded stakes, and the Frosted five-year-old will pick up Flavien Prat, a 30% winner in sprints.
#5 Battle of Normandy (2-1): Drops in class after facing graded stakes company last three. Was a neck second in 1 1/16-mile With Anticipation Stakes (G3) last August. Last out, the City of Light colt came home fifth by 3 1/2 lengths to Victoria Road in one-mile Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) with a 92 Late Pace rating. Shug McGaughey a 19% winner with turf starts and a 17% winner with horses racing on Lasix the first time. Irad Ortiz Jr. will pick up the mount in three-year-old’s first start since November.
#1 Moon Cat (15-1): Bumped at the start and clipped heels but saved ground to finish sixth in a 1 1/16-mile allowance optional claimer at Gulfstream March 11 while recording a career-best 89 Brisnet Speed rating. Will try blinkers and race on Lasix a second time for Chris Davis, a 16% winner with shippers. John Velazquez will pick up the mount on Malibu Moon colt.
#9 Our Dream Rye’d (6-1): Drops in class after finishing last of eight in one-mile Colonel Liam Stakes at Gulfstream. May improve with Lasix in first start in 48 days for Ian Wilkes (15-3-5-1 this meet). Joel Rosario will regain the mount and finished third with the More Than Ready colt two back when racing at Keeneland in a 1 1/16-mile allowance. Added distance may help.
#2 Ocean Pointe (9-2): Beaten a neck in 1 1/16-mile Rushaway Stakes on Turfway’s all-weather March 25 while recording 89 BRIS figure and 97 Late Pace rating. Trainer Richard Estvanko is a 17% winner at allowance level but 0-for-5 with horses switching from AW to turf. Regular rider Orlando Mojica will stick with the Kitten’s Joy gelding.
MTO: Winters Lion (7-2): Romped to 6 1/2-length win three back in 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight at Oaklawn. Switched to turf in last two. Tyler Gaffalione named to ride.