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Homeracing

Keeneland Spot Plays Based on Brisnet Handicapping Trends at Current Meeting

Profile Picture: Ed DeRosa

Ed DeRosa

October 26th, 2016

I’ve waxed poetic plenty about the power of recent form in dirt sprints at Keeneland, and while the power of that stat is unlikely wane (i.e. it’ll always be one of the most powerful data points in a horse’s past performances, it’s just a matter of how powerful in short bursts), the stat has also done very well in dirt routes this meeting.

There have been 27 dirt routes this month at Keeneland, and betting the top last-out Brisnet.com Speed Rating has yielded a +34% ROI. As always, this isn’t mentioned because this is a sustainable betting model but rather because of what clues it gives on how to handicap races at Keeneland: in-form horses are preferred, and let speed define class. August racing is absolutely better at Saratoga than Gulfstream, but the 90 from Florida is better than the 85 from Saratoga.

Prime Power has done well for itself, too, which is somewhat self-fulfilling because last-out Speed is a part of the formula, but there are many other factors baked into the number, which at the current meeting is posting a +27% ROI on the top-ranked horse in dirt routes.

And if you combine the two (i.e. bet a horse who’s top-ranked in both last-out Speed and Prime Power), you get 50% winners with a +28% ROI.

And wouldn’t you know it, there’s such a horse in today: #4 Lady of Opinion in race 3, and she’s 6-to-1 on the morning line going turf to dirt and getting a big drop in class for trainer Wayne Mackey who will leg up Antioco Muriga for his first Keeneland mount. The relatively unknown connections (even for a maiden claimer) should keep our price afloat, but Muriga was fourth in wins and fifth in earnings this summer at Belterra Park.

#11 Untapped also qualifies but will be a much shorter price with a 4-point advantage in Speed and 5.9 on Prime Power. Maidens who lead both those categories by at least 4 points have won 44% of races, but the ROI is negative because they’re typically favored. A strong single here, though, perhaps (race 5 is very important to multi-race players today as it’s the last leg of the early Pick 4, first leg of the late Pick 4, second leg of the Pick 5, and third leg of the Pick 6.

KEENELAND AT A GLANCE
Avg. Winning Odds: 6.15 - 1
Favorite Win%: 34%, Favorite Itm%: 75%
EXOTICS PAYOFF
Exacta 115.46
Daily Double 125.23
Trifecta 976.40
Pick 3 1,162.06
Superfecta 7,822.03
Pick 6 12,980.27
Pick 4 7,828.67
Pick 5 52,449.60
Super High Five 24,830.25
TRACK BIAS MEET(10/07 - 10/23)
Distance #
Race
%
Wire
Best
Style
Best
Posts
 
6.0fDirt 19 21% E/P Rail/Ins  
7.0fDirt 17 29% E Outside  
1 1/16mDirt 24 21% E/P Rail  
1 1/8mDirt 5 0% E/P Rail/Ins  
Turf Sprint 5 0% S Outside  
Turf Routes 30 23% E/P Rail  
 
Who's HOT, Who's NOT
HOT TRAINERS Starts Wins Place Show Avg.
Odds
Winning
Favorites
'15-' 16
Win%
Pletcher Todd A. 6 3 2 0 3.30 3 23%
Foley Gregory D. 6 2 1 0 10.78 0 13%
HOT JOCKEYS Starts Wins Place Show Avg.
Odds
Winning
Favorites
'15-' 16
Win%
Leparoux Julien R. 27 7 1 2 6.27 4 17%
Landeros Chris 13 4 2 1 12.67 1 14%
Ortiz Jose L. 12 3 3 1 3.85 1 20%
COLD TRAINERS Starts Wins Place Show Avg.
Odds
Beaten
Favorites
'15-' 16
Win%
Stidham Michael 18 0 3 1 11.43 2 18%
LoPresti Charles 11 0 0 3 15.55 0 15%
COLD JOCKEYS Starts Wins Place Show Avg.
Odds
Beaten
Favorites
'15-' 16
Win%
Bridgmohan Shaun 10 0 1 1 15.42 2 15%

 

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