Keeneland trip notes and horses to watch for October 16-20

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Noel Michaels

October 24th, 2019

The following are trip notes for horses who had sharp efforts or tough trips at Keeneland during the week of October 16-20, and who figure to improve or run big in their next starts. Add these runners to your horses to watch list, and bet them back next time if they land in a reasonable spot at Churchill Downs, or elsewhere.

Racing for the week at Keeneland was run under good weather conditions, on mostly a fast main track and firm turf. The horses below have a good chance to run well, outrun their odds, and/or win in their subsequent starts.

Keeneland Trip Notes (October 16-20)

BAYERNESS: First starter shrugged off a bad start to show poise and ability, drawing off to a big win as much the best over Asmussen/Sharp/Brown types. Likely repeater.

CHELSEA CLOISTERS: Broke poorly to trail in last in a 12-horse field going 5 1/2 furlongs and finished with run, but had little-to-no chance from too far back. No luck since coming back from a layoff but ready to run back to 2yo figs in the right spot.

CHURN N BURN: First time starter closed fast for third in six-furlong event that was ruled by the two front-runners. Prepped and ready next time.

GET HAMMERED: Fast sprinter handled the local surface and did the best of the front-runners in a race loaded with speed to run on for second, just missing by a neck to a 9-5 favorite with a perfect set up.

INDY TAKES CHARGE: Tough-luck loss by a neck at 15-1 odds, finishing with a surge but a bit too late after getting blocked and stuck in traffic. Don’t ignore anymore.

JOSIE: Steadied around a rival into the first turn to be too far back, then was used to rush back up to take over the lead until fading late to third as a result of the earlier efforts. Just needs clear sailing.

KITTY’S PROMISE: Did all the dirty work chasing a loose lone speed maiden claiming winner, and got within a length of that one at the finish while clear of the rest. Looks good back vs. maiden claimers.

LA SIGNARE: Took the worst of a three-way win photo and settled for third in a good effort in return from a seven-month layoff. Ready to roll in return from the sidelines.

LETSSTAYPOSITIVE: Lost to a possible stakes-bound juvenile 2-5 favorite when landing in a tough return spot off nearly a six-month layoff. His turn next time.

LUCY’S TOWN: Was bothered at the start to begin behind the rest of the field and lost best chance. Passed horses late for fifth, just a neck out of fourth, and can surprise with a better break next time off the claim by Breen.

MARVIN: First-time starter broke slow but finished well to outrun 15-1 odds for third in a big field. Don’t overlook.

MR. MONOMOY: Well-bet first starter got squeezed far back to last at the break, losing his best chance at the start in a 12-horse field. Passed a good portion of the field for fourth and it’s too early to give up on him.

NONHELMA: Thistledown shipper showed speed but was under constant pressure up front at Keeneland and faded late for third, beaten a nose for second. Worth another try.

SOVEREIGN IMPACT: Winner at Churchill got wiped out at the start at Keeneland and couldn’t recover. Can rebound with a clean start.

THE GIRL FACTOR: Rallied from 11th to third and was the only closer in the race to make any kind of a dent in a race where the four front-runners finished 1-2-4-5.