Kentucky Derby 16-20 in Point Standings

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D.S. Williamson

April 28th, 2016

The Kentucky Derby is about a week away. In this blog, I run down horses from 16 to 20 in the point standings. One thing should be clear to anybody who has wagered on the Kentucky Derby the past couple of years, not paying attention to the 16 through 20 horses in point standings is a recipe for disaster. Although the 16 through 20 horses in point standings are throw outs to many horseplayers, that's just not the way to go. I prefer to look to use some of these horses in my trifectas and superfectas if not in my exactas. I'm actually bullish on 3 of the horses in the 16 through 20 range:  My Man Sam, Mo Tom and Trojan Nation.

I start with 16. Tom's Ready and finish with 20. Mo Tom.

16. Tom's Ready - I don't believe that the Dallas Stewart trainee is ready to win the Kentucky Derby. His race in the Louisiana Derby, even though he finished second, left me thinking that he wants no part of 1 1/4 miles. While Mo Tom gut shut off at the rail, Tom's Ready outworked some of the others in the Louisiana Derby to finish second to Gun Runner. The pace wasn't all that swift. But that's not why I didn't like Tom's Ready's race. He beat Dazzling Gem, who needs to mature some and barely held off Mo Tom even though that one had a ton more trouble than Tom's Ready did. I'm only using Tom's Ready when I push the All button on one of my .10 cent superfecta tickets.  
17. My Man Sam - I'm more impressed with My Man Sam's run in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes than I am with winner Brody's Cause. Another 1/16 of a mile and My Man Sam probably would have passed Brody's Cause. The Chad Brown trainee had to go 8 wide around the final turn. He continued to excel in the lane. What really impressed me is how he appeared to gain a bit of energy once he got a chance to stare Cherry Wine, the third place finisher, in the eye. My Man Sam seems like the type of horse that knows where the finish line is. I always put horses like My Man Sam on my exotic tickets.  
18. Majesto - Was Majesto's run in the Florida Derby legitimate?  Or, was he flattered by Mohaymen not firing his best shot?  I am somewhat chilly on Mohaymen. But, that doesn't mean that I believe that this son of Tiznow trained by Gustavo Delgado is anywhere close to winning the Kentucky Derby. Majesto should be around 2 to 3 lengths off of the pace in the Derby. Although some feel that the pace won't be as sharp as what we saw in the prep races, I'm not one of those people. I don't think that Danzing Candy can run any other way. Outwork is another horse that appears to only know how to run on the pace. Taking Majesto back off the pace won't do him any favors. More importantly, Tiznow was a late blooming three-year-old. I sort of feel that Majesto might be the same type of horse.
19. Trojan Nation - This maiden showed no quit as only the bob of a nose kept him from upsetting favored Outowork at 81 to 1 in the Wood Memorial. The way that he screamed up the rail was impressive. Was he helped by a golden rail?  Maybe. Did he benefit by an unreal :22.91 first quarter mile?  Undoubtedly. But, I still think he's got a huge shot to finish in the exacta, trifecta and superfecta on the First Saturday in May. Trainer Paddy Gallagher is one of the great horsemen in the United States. This guy was sired by Street Cry. He's from a Summer Squall broodmare. He might be the best bred horse in the 2016 Kentucky Derby. I'm not leaving him out, that's for sure.
20. Mo Tom - No horse that will enter into this year's Kentucky Derby had as bad of trips in his last 2 than Mo Tom. The Thomas Amoss trainee had to take up in the Louisiana Derby. He also had to take up in the Lecomte Stakes. In both of those races, with cleaner trips, he may have beaten Gun Runner, who figures to be no worse than the fourth to fifth choice on May 7. Because he was sired by Uncle Mo, like Nyquist, some may question Mo Tom's ability to get 1 1/4 miles. That's a legitimate concern, but the ease at which he relaxes early on in the race and the speed at which he runs once he unleashes his burst implies that he may only need a clean trip to have a say in the outcome. Mo Tom is a must use from my point of view.


With only a week left before the 2016 Kentucky Derby, it's time to sharpen those handicapping skills!  Log on and enter the BetAmerica Race Contests!