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Homeracing

Kentucky Derby BRIS Speed Rating Report April 5: Always Dreaming wows in stakes debut

Profile Picture: James Scully

April 5th, 2017

Always Dreaming became the 10th Kentucky Derby prospect to register a triple-digit BRIS Speed rating this year, netting a 102 for a five-length romp in the Florida Derby (G1), and it was easy to come away impressed with the improving 3-year-old in his stakes debut.

The Bodemeister colt established himself as a serious contender for Todd Pletcher, who added another Kentucky Derby starter when Patch finished second in his first stakes attempt, the TwinSpires.com Louisiana Derby (G2).

State of Honor ensured himself a Kentucky Derby berth with a runner-up effort in the Florida Derby. The Mark Casse trainee hasn’t won since breaking his maiden over the synthetic track at Woodbine last October and his 2017 BRIS Speed numbers (96-96-97) won’t be among the best in the Kentucky Derby field, but State of Honor never runs a bad race, finishing third in the Sam F. Davis (G3) and second in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2).

Gunnevera was bet down as the even-money favorite but never challenged in the Florida Derby, dropping far back during the early stages. He began rallying past rivals on the far turn and managed to register a third consecutive triple-digit BRIS Late Pace figure (102), but the Dialed In colt didn’t make up much ground on the top pair in the stretch, finishing 1 ½ lengths back of State of Honor in third. His Speed number dropped to a 95.

Girvin confirmed his superiority on the Fair Grounds circuit, scoring comfortably by 1 ¼ lengths as the 6-5 Louisiana Derby favorite. Winner of the February 25 Risen Star (G2), his BRIS Speed ratings held steady (98-99) but his Late Pace figures dropped from 112 (Risen Star) to 96 as the Tale of Ekati colt drifted in and switched back to the wrong lead late on the stretch out to 1 1/8 miles.

He’ll face a tough task against better foes at Churchill Downs, but Girvin is 3-for-3 on dirt for conditioner Joe Sharp.

Patch gave a fine account of himself considering his inexperience – he had just broken his maiden the second time out at Gulfstream at Gulfstream Park – and has room for further development. But his inexperience is a legitimate concern in the first leg of the Triple Crown.

Local Hero didn’t run poorly in his second start versus winners, gamely holding on for third in the Louisiana Derby, and has a chance to make the Kentucky Derby field with 30 points. However, I can't envision the Hard Spun colt relishing added ground on May 6.

Here are the top BRIS Speed ratings from Kentucky Derby qualifying races this year (90 or above, top four finish required):

Horse

 

Race (finish position)

 

BRIS Speed

J BOYS ECHO

 

Gotham (1st)

 

104

HENCE

 

Sunland Derby (1st)

 

103

ALWAYS DREAMING

 

Florida Derby (1st)

 

10c2

GORMLEY

 

Sham (1st)

 

102

GUNNEVERA

 

Fountain of Youth (1st)

 

102

IRISH WAR CRY

 

Holy Bull (1st)

 

102

AMERICAN ANTHEM

 

Sham (2nd)

 

102

ONE LINER

 

Southwest (1st)

 

101

TAPWRIT

 

Tampa Bay Derby (1st)

 

101

CLOUD COMPUTING

 

Gotham (2nd)

 

100

GIRVIN

 

Louisiana Derby (1st)

 

99

MCCRAKEN

 

Sam Davis (1st)

 

99

CONQUEST MO MONEY

 

Sunland Derby (2nd)

 

99

GIRVIN

 

Risen Star (1st)

 

98

PATCH

 

Louisiana Derby (2nd)

 

98

UNCONTESTED

 

Smarty Jones (1st)

 

97

GUNNEVERA

 

Holy Bull (2nd)

 

97

PETROV

 

Southwest (2nd)

 

97

STATE OF HONOR

 

Florida Derby (2nd)

 

97

TAPWRIT

 

Sam Davis (2nd)

 

97

STATE OF HONOR

 

Tampa Bay Derby (2nd)

 

96

UNTRAPPED

 

Risen Star (2nd)

 

96

LOCAL HERO

 

Louisiana Derby (3rd)

 

96

STATE OF HONOR

 

Sam Davis (3rd)

 

96

HOLLYWOOD HANDSOME

 

Louisiana Derby (4th)

 

96

MALAGACY

 

Rebel (1st)

 

95

ROYAL MO

 

Robert Lewis (1st)

 

95

PRACTICAL JOKE

 

Fountain of Youth (2nd)

 

95

GUNNEVERA

 

Florida Derby (3rd)

 

95

THREE RULES

 

Fountain of Youth (3rd)

 

95

WILD SHOT

 

Sam Davis (4th)

 

95

ILIAD

 

San Felipe (2nd)

 

94

TRUE TIMBER

 

Withers (2nd)

 

94

HEDGE FUND

 

Sunland Derby (3rd)

 

94

WILD SHOT

 

Tampa Bay Derby (3rd)

 

94

GUEST SUITE

 

Lecomte (1st)

 

93

SONNETEER

 

Rebel (2nd)

 

93

J BOYS ECHO

 

Withers (3rd)

 

93

LOCAL HERO

 

Risen Star (3rd)

 

93

UNTRAPPED

 

Rebel (3rd)

 

93

GUEST SUITE

 

Risen Star (4th)

 

93

IRAP

 

Sunland Derby (4th)

 

93

NO DOZING

 

Tampa Bay Derby (4th)

 

93

PETROV

 

Rebel (4th)

 

93

CLASSIC EMPIRE

 

Holy Bull (3rd)

 

92

TERM OF ART

 

San Felipe (3rd)

 

92

IRAP

 

Robert Lewis (2nd)

 

91

PETROV

 

Smarty Jones (2nd)

 

91

UNTRAPPED

 

Lecomte (2nd)

 

91

ACTION EVERYDAY

 

Gotham (4th)

 

91

GORMLEY

 

San Felipe (4th)

 

91

ZAKAROFF

 

El Camino Real Derby (1st)

 

90

SHEER FLATTERY

 

Robert Lewis (3rd)

 

90

 

 

 

 

 

 

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