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Homeracing

Kentucky Derby BRIS Speed Rating Report – Louisiana Derby

Profile Picture: James Scully

March 27th, 2018

Noble Indy faced an onslaught from a pair of late runners and briefly surrendered the advantage before gamely triumphing in the March 24 TwinSpires.com Louisiana Derby (G2) at Fair Grounds. He registered a respectable 100 BRIS Speed rating for the front-running neck decision and Noble Indy gives Todd Pletcher (who won last year with Always Dreaming) another Kentucky Derby starter, following the success of Rebel (G2) winner Magnum Moon a week earlier.

The two-time Kentucky Derby-winning conditioner can add another this weekend in Audible, the likely favorite in Saturday’s Florida Derby (G1) following a runaway score in the Holy Bull (G2) earlier in the Gulfstream meet.

The $1 million Louisiana Derby was the first of seven major Kentucky Derby qualifiers awarding points on a 100-40-20-10 scale to the top four finishers. Noble Indy brought a solid set of BRIS Speed numbers (97-95-96) into the 1 1/8-mile test and reached the triple-digit threshold achieved by 17 of the last 20 Kentucky Derby winners in one of the last two prep races.

However, Noble Indy’s BRIS Pace numbers changed dramatically with the addition of blinkers. After posting a pair of triple-digit BRIS Late Pace ratings from his first three outings, with E1 and E2 numbers in the 80s, he received only an 86 Late Pace in the Louisiana Derby. The son of Take Charge Indy broke forwardly and chased a no-hope 141-1 longshot through wicked early splits, generating 108 E1 and 109 E2 ratings.

We’ll see whether Noble Indy continues to be so eager in the early stages of the Kentucky Derby.

Lone Sailor rallied past Noble Indy in upper stretch, leading by a length with a furlong remaining, but could not sustain his turn of foot and wound up being edged in the latter stages. His BRIS Speed numbers did increase significantly, with a 100 representing a double-digit jump from his last five outings, and the confirmed closer held second by a half-length.

My Boy Jack rated in last among 10 runners during the opening stages and the late runner went extremely wide launching an eye-catching move on the far turn and into the stretch. He continued to travel on the middle of the track but couldn’t make up the necessary ground through the stretch, missing by less than a length, and earned career-topping 99 Speed and 106 Late Pace numbers.

With seven prep races remaining (six major qualifiers and Lexington [G2] at Keeneland), My Boy Jack could find himself on the points bubble with 32 and the April 14 Arkansas Derby (G1) remains an option.

The Road to the Kentucky Derby series determines eligibility and a 35-race schedule is divided between the Prep Season and Championship Series.

Top BRIS Speed ratings so far in the Championship Series, which began in mid-February (95 and better):

Horse

 

Race (finish)

 

BRIS Speed

Enticed

 

Gotham (1st)

 

104

Promises Fulfilled

 

Fountain of Youth (1st)

 

104

Strike Power

 

Fountain of Youth (2nd)

 

101

Old Time Revival

 

Gotham (2nd)

 

101

Magnum Moon

 

Rebel (1st)

 

100

Noble Indy

 

Louisiana Derby (1st)

 

100

Blended Citizen

 

Jeff Ruby Steaks (1st)

 

100

Lone Sailor

 

Louisiana Derby (2nd)

 

100

Pony Up

 

Jeff Ruby Steaks (2nd)

 

99

My Boy Jack

 

Louisiana Derby (3rd)

 

99

Bolt d’Oro

 

San Felipe (1st)

 

98

Bravazo

 

Risen Star (1st)

 

98

Quip

 

Tampa Bay Derby (1st)

 

98

McKinzie

 

San Felipe (2nd)

 

98

Snapper Sinclair

 

Risen Star (2nd)

 

98

Arawak

 

Jeff Ruby Steaks (3rd)

 

98

Good Magic

 

Fountain of Youth (3rd)

 

98

Flameaway

 

Tampa Bay Derby (2nd)

 

97

Runaway Ghost

 

Sunland Derby (1st)

 

96

Solomini

 

Rebel (2nd)

 

96

Combatant

 

Rebel (3rd)

 

96

Free Drop Billy

 

Gotham (3rd)

 

96

Noble Indy

 

Risen Star (3rd)

 

96

World of Trouble

 

Tampa Bay Derby (3rd)

 

96

Machismo

 

Fountain of Youth (4th)

 

96

Instilled Regard

 

Risen Star (4th)

 

95

 

 

 

 

 

Top BRIS Speed ratings from the Prep Season, which began last September and concluded in mid-February:

Horse (finish)

 

Race

 

BRIS Speed

Audible

 

Holy Bull (1st)

 

105

Bolt d’Oro

 

FrontRunner (1st)

 

105

Good Magic

 

BC Juvenile (1st)

 

105

McKinzie

 

Sham (1st)

 

104

Flameaway

 

Sam F. Davis (1st)

 

101

Catholic Boy

 

Sam F. Davis (2nd)

 

101

Solomini

 

Los Alamitos Futurity (3rd)

 

101

McKinzie

 

Los Alamitos Futurity (1st)

 

100

Instilled Regard

 

Los Alamitos Futurity (2nd)

 

100

Solomini

 

BC Juvenile (2nd)

 

100

Vino Rosso

 

Sam F. Davis (3rd)

 

100

All Out Blitz

 

Sham (2nd)

 

99

Free Drop Billy

 

Holy Bull (2nd)

 

99

Bolt d’Oro

 

BC Juvenile (3rd)

 

99

Catholic Boy

 

Remsen (1st)

 

98

My Boy Jack

 

Southwest (1st)

 

98

Firenze Fire

 

Champagne (1st)

 

96

Instilled Regard

 

Lecomte (1st)

 

96

Good Magic

 

Champagne (2nd)

 

96

Solomini

 

FrontRunner (2nd)

 

96

 

 

 

 

 

 

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