Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 2 & weekend preview

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Ed DeRosa

February 28th, 2013

The second (of three) Kentucky Derby Future Wager is this weekend, and unlike the first pool, some of the horses involved in this pool are running this weekend, so that changes the approach a little bit since what Overanalyze and Vyjack do in the Gotham at Aqueduct (free Ultimate PPs) and what Titletown Five does in the Gazebo at Oaklawn will absolutely affect how they're bet in the final 24 hours the pool is open.

For free Ultimate PPs of Kentucky Derby Future Wager 2, click here, and of course wager on the pools (and keep an eye on odds) via
I already have 13 horses covered in Kentucky Derby futures (see ALL BETS tab) with Verrazano and Orb being the two horses I'm most concerned with having $0 on. The former is scheduled to run next week in the Tampa Bay Derby at Tampa Bay Downs while the latter just ran last weekend, winning the Fountain of Youth. That means I'm more likely to bet Verrazano in this spot and pass on Orb until the final pool since he won't run between now and then. I.e., why take 12-to-1 now (based on morning line) when I'll probably get that same price in a few weeks when other horses emerge?

Verrazano, on the other hand, is 10-to-1 here and figures to be half that price if he wins the Tampa Bay Derby in impressive fashion, which I expect. Still, 10-to-1 is light too. I think this is a pretty good group of horses, so even if Verrazano wins out he still might only be 3- or 4-to-1 on Derby day. That price then appeals to me more than 10-to-1 now given the projected record.

Two other horses in similar positions to Orb are Itsmyluckyday and Shanghai Bobby. Neither is likely to run before the Kentucky Derby Future Wager closes pool 3, so again, why take the projected prices now when you can get three weeks closer to the Derby and about the same price then?

I ended up not pulling the trigger on the field last time, and no regrets yet at 8-to-5 considering the only horses I missed out then that I can't get now are I've Struck A Nerve, Orb, Palace Malice, Shakin It Up, Titletown Five, and Treasury Bill. I didn't like the San Vicente at all, so SIU & TB are nonfactors to me. The Risen Star was OK, but I don't see either ISAN or PM as major enough threats at this point (& their price should still be OK three weeks from now). Titletown Five is precarious because if he runs well in the Gazebo he'll be an underlay, and if he doesn't run well then he's a nonfactor anyway. I might play him if he's a troubled second and then overlooked because you know Lukas will take his shot regardless.

The only Kentucky Oaks Future Wager is this weekend (click here for free Ultimate PPs), and I'm not as bullish on that pool because there's no other opportunity besides race day to protect your position. That said, the Martha Washington horses might be OK at big prices, and So Many Ways at 30-to-1 is intriguing on a sort of "out of sight-out of mind-overlooked" angle.

I don't get involved in exacta wagering much, but an Oaks-Derby future double could be fun down the road. Good luck for those getting involved this weekend!