Kentucky Derby Pedigree Profile: Improbable

Profile Picture: John Mucciolo

December 10th, 2018

WinStar Farm, China Horse Club and Starlight Racing's Improbable moved his sterling mark to three wins from as many outings with an impressive, five-length score in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G1) on Saturday. The juvenile colt capped off a fine two-year-old season for conditioner Bob Baffert, which also saw the youngster roll home in the Street Sense at Churchill Downs.

Improbable was bred in the Bluegrass State by St George Farm and G. Watts Humphrey. The chestnut passed through the sales ring on a pair of occasions, bringing $110,000 as a weanling at the 2016 Keeneland November Sale before fetching a final bid of $200,000 at the 2017 Keeneland September Yearling Sale.

He is by the late City Zip, who is responsible for at least 79 black type winners from 14 crops to date. He amassed six graded wins and achieved his greatest success when annexing the 2000 Hopeful (G1) in a dead heat. While he was a one-turn performer on the track, City Zip has become a very versatile stud who has sired top runners over various surfaces and distances. Champions Catch a Glimpse, Dayatthespa, Work All Week and Finest City, as well as 2017 Pacific Classic (G1) star Collected, are among the top runners he has sired.

Improbable is the first foal out of the winning A.P. Indy mare Rare Event. That lass has since produced an unnamed yearling filly by Quality Road and an unnamed weanling colt by Oxbow.

A.P. Indy has been a wildly successful sire as well as a stellar broodmare sire. The 1992 Horse of the Year has been the broodmare sire of more than 195 black type winners who have banked in excess of $170 million to date. And he has been in the top-five on the broodmare sire list for the majority of this decade.

He has had a big impact on each leg of the Triple Crown, too. A. P. Indy is the sire of 2007 Belmont Stakes (G1) heroine Rags to Riches, and his daughters produced 2010 Kentucky Derby (G1) star Super Saver as well as 2017 Preakness (G1) victor Cloud Computing. Game Winner, the top two-year-old in 2018, is out of a daughter of A.P. Indy as well.

The second dam of Improbable, Canadian stakes heroine Our Rite of Spring, is a three-quarter sister to dual classic-placed Grade-1 winner and top sire Hard Spun.

Improbable has been impressive from day one. The chestnut has shown improvement as the distances have increased this campaign, and the juvenile colt looks to have plenty more in the tank with the way he finishes his races. The colt is an extremely exciting prospect with a high ceiling. Improbable receives ample stamina through his female line and has the look of a classics-type horse going forward.

Improbable (c) Benoit Photo