Kentucky Derby Sire Future Wager Analysis

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November 26th, 2019

The fifth annual Kentucky Derby Sire Future Wager will kick off on Thanksgiving Day. This entertaining wagering opportunity coincides with Pool 1 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager (KDFW) and concludes on Sunday, December 1 at 6 p.m. (EST).

RELATED: Fields for the Kentucky Derby Future Wagers

The wager for the sires offers 23 individual entries, with an additional option for “All Other Sires”.

Leading the way among individual sires is #5 Constitution (6-1), who currently ranks second on the 2019 first-crop sire list. The WinStar Farm stallion is the lone entry with multiple horses in the KDFW (Tiz the Law, Independence Hall and Gouverneur Morris).

Leading first-crop sire #1 American Pharoah (8-1) comes next on the morning line. The 2015 Triple Crown winner is responsible for at least 23 winners to date, while his progeny have amassed more than $2.4 million in earnings.

Perennial powers #6 Curlin (12-1) and #20 Tapit (12-1) are also well-respected, followed by #19 Street Sense (15-1) and #21 Tiznow (15-1).

While the KDFW focuses on selecting individual horses with one opportunity to win, the Kentucky Derby Sire Future Wager gives you multiple chances at cashing a ticket.

#11 Into Mischief (20-1) tops the list for me in 2020.

Not only is the Spendthrift Farm stallion Into Mischief atop the general sires list of 2019, he has also sired 34 two-year-old winners in 2019, which is nine more than any other stallion. He might not have the so-called “big horse” just yet, but Into Mischief has strength in numbers and has been bred to many top mares.

It is worth noting that 14 of the top 20 leading juvenile sires of 2019 are absent on the list, which makes the case for #24 All Other Sires (4-1) a viable one. Last year, "All Others" was a winner after Country House, a son of Lookin At Lucky, captured the Run for the Roses.

There is no set formula for this future wager, obviously, but it has plenty of appeal. Wagering on a sire, or sires, gives bettors a rooting interest in an abundance of three-year-olds races in 2020, and those on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, as well!