Kentucky Downs Scouting Report for Sept. 11
With just one 10-1 winner, and all but two of 11 winners paying 3-1 or less, the results were quite formful on Thursday at Kentucky Downs. The vast majority of the races were won from off the pace, with Lady of Luxury providing the lone gate-to-wire score.
Joel Rosario scored a riding double, raising his meet-leading win total to 13. Tyler Gaffalione, who had experienced some tough luck the first three days of the meet, bagged three wins on Thursday. Mike Maker trained two winners on the day, but it’s Steve Asmussen who leads all conditioners with four victories at meet.
The rail moves from 17 feet out the past two racing days to all the way inside at zero feet for the final two days. The movement of the rail didn’t affect how the races played on Wednesday/Thursday, but with two paths of fresh grass and a firm turf, it’s certainly worth monitoring.
I’m hoping for a big day from jockey Adam Beschizza, whom I have on top in four of the 11 races.
1st Race – Pick Five starts here
#6 Freedom Bound has improved significantly since moving over to the turf course off the Ethan West claim. She’s still eligible for NW2 lifetime, but unlike some of the others entered here, she appears to have some upside.
A – 6, 7, 10, 11
B – 2, 4
C – 1, 12
2nd Race – Pick Four starts here
#5 Lady de Peron displayed a strong late kick in both career starts, and it’s highly likely she will take another step forward here. Trainer Edward Vaughn has made a solid impression in his short time in the states.
A – 5, 12
B – 2, 4, 8, 9, 11
C – 1, 3, 6, 14, 15
#1 Conviction Trade runs hot and cold, but he’s proven over distance and does get some class relief here.
A – 1
B – 6, 8, 9
C – 5
#9 Caveat Emptor has run competitively at a different venue in all four starts of his career. He’s versatile, and the one mile trip at Kentucky Downs should suit him well.
A – 9, 10
B – 4, 5, 6, 13
C – 7, 8, 11, 12
5th Race – Pick Four starts here
The Shug McGaughey-trained debuter #8 Hype House is the first foal out of the graded stakes winning router Carrumba, and Kentucky Downs dominator Joel Rosario climbs aboard.
A – 8, 11, 14
B – 3, 6, 9, 15
C – 5, 10, 12
I have an interest in Yes It’s Ginger with Brilliant Racing, therefore I am unable to provide analysis for this race.
7th Race – Pick Five starts here
#5 She'sonthewarpath has been remarkably consistent, and she enters this race off consecutive game wins. Jockey Adam Beschizza knows her versatile style well, and she should relish the mile trip at Kentucky Downs.
A – 2, 5
B – 3, 8
C – 6, 7, 9
8th Race – Pick Four starts here
#5 Born Great won two races in a week at Kentucky Downs last year. His recent win at Ellis was better than it looks on paper, and he should get the all-important first run on the deep closers today.
A – 4, 5, 11
B – 1, 2, 7, 9, 10, 12
C – 3
#5 Arklow has won this race twice. His recent form doesn’t look great, but he has excuses. He should be ready for a peak performance in his third start of the form cycle.
A – 5
B – 1, 3
C – 2, 9, 10
#4 Easy Time won his career debut over seven furlongs on the Tapeta at Woodbine. He made a threatening middle move in the Hall of Fame S. (G2) at Saratoga last time out and got bounced around at the top of the stretch. He should appreciate the cut back to 6 1/2 furlongs, and the price will be right.
A – 2, 4, 6
B – 7, 10
C – 1, 5, 9
By Empire Maker, the Brad Cox-trained first timer #9 Garmento is out of Guapaza, who was a monster in her native Chile prior to banking over $300K in just seven U.S. starts. Rosario has been named to ride this Don Alberto homebred.
A – 2, 9, 10
B – 1, 7
C – 6
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