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Homeracing

Kentucky Futurity Day: Action Over The Red Mile For Sports’ Stars And Courageous Bettors

Profile Picture: Frank Cotolo

October 8th, 2016

The Sunday program of the Red Mile is the Grand Circuit finale in Kentucky and the gateway to the Breeders Crown divisional championships. Don’t miss a race, post time is 1 p.m. Eastern Time.

Here’s a preview of the top races on Oct. 9 for TwinSpires bettors with eyes on profits. The star-studded program at The Red Mile demands this addendum to our weekly preview blog. Consider our arguments and suggestions in all of your wagering.

Watch for the regular update review Sunday night. Meanwhile, let’s look over this lucrative card and try to topple the public where probabilities may surface.

ALL ALLERAGES

Allerage Farms offers a trio of six-digit events for older horses at The Red Mile on Oct. 9. Here is a rundown of the top and outside contenders for each event in order of their appearances on the program.

Mare Pace
What does one do with Lady Shadow? She will never offer a great price, not even a great low-price overlay. You could key her in exotics and hope for an outside contender to over-perform or become lucky and get a decent price. You may consider Venus Delight the exacta partner but only if she goes off at high odds.

Open Trot
This group demands attention because there are arguments for each that cannot be dismissed. Obrigado should be the crowd’s choice but it would be no foolish move to go against him here. A good swing at him would be Musical Rhythm. It’s about time this huge winner came into a race where he was not weighed down with one burden or another. His recent four races were miserable due to posts, miscues and, of course, Resolve, who is not here to reign over this field.

Pace
Only five show up for this older pace and one is not Wiggle It Jiggleit. So, aside from Shambala, the only one here to ever defeat Always B Miki, leaving from post 3 in this mile, how does “Miki” lose this? Again, can he be keyed or does Shambala have a chance to nip him if Miki rolls too quickly with another field member? Will Split The House challenge hard enough to ruin Miki by a step or two? Will Shambala go off being worth an exacta partnership? If you can answer, you can bet. We think Miki breaks a mile record and wins easily but like the Shambala scenario better, so take him to win.

GG GALS

Two Glen Garnsey Memorials for glamour-girl pacers are also on the Sunday agenda. Seven gals take on the first, a $105,000 mile, with Pure Country ready to roll as the choice, not having to deal with Darlingonthebeach (she is in the second “Garnsey.” She will have to deal with Lakeisha Hall, a Ron Burke filly from Ohio, and Ghost Runner, a second-tier Empire State-bred. Pure Country is far better than both of them but meets Ross Croghan’s Call Me Queen Be again after losing twice to her. She is the biggest threat to Jimmy Takter’s “Country” and won’t be too far behind in the wagering. What may be the best thing to do is take “Queen” to win along with an exotic partner other than Country—say Lindwood Beachgirl. She has raced well in Country classes and that exacta (either way) would pump up a price.

The second GG is worth $108,000, with eight across the gate. Darlinonthebeach soaks up the win pool, no doubt, but you can bet against her for price sake, as well as key her with Dime A Dance for an exacta. Dime A Dance is a classy New York bred (by the fabulous sire Roll With Joe), that has a loss in a Bluegrass last week which is bound to turn bettors off. Her two seconds in high-pursed sires stakes are terrific miles. Her Tioga performances include a forgiven mile for breaking and a very good Empire Breeders Stake elim. Burke’s student can put in a much better mile here.

TATTERSALLS SOPHS

The glamour-boy pacers pounce on the red clay next in two Tattersalls stakes, both splits worth $208,000. This division has been quite tight once you factor out Betting Line, who has not been as active as his cohorts. Burke has sent Check Six after everything that moves in stakes and has made major money for that one’s connections. Western Fame woke up for Takter when we predicted he would do it—in a Little Brown Jug heat—and has been very much awake since leaving Ohio. These two will split the win pool. We have backed and supported JJ Flynn through the season and love his first Lexington race, a Bluegrass where he was second to Western Fame at 16-1. So, he gets our vote for an upset and certainly as an exotic wager element.

The second Tattersalls welcomes Racing Hill back after scratching in the “Jug” final and Lyons Snyder, who raced in the second heat but had a tiring outside trip on the half-mile. Takter should send “Snyder” strongly here, as some of his foes here did not race well on last week’s Red Mile cards. JK Will Power failed badly; American Passport was very short; and Big Top Hanover broke for the second-straight time. This should be Snyder’s spot to get a winner’s photo.

FILLY FUTURITY SPLITS

A pair of $46,800 Kentucky Filly Futurity fields set up a $218,400 final for the glamour-girl trotters. As usual, we will concentrate on the elim heats in our hunt for profits.

The first field of nine can only vaguely be separated. Broadway Donna jumped as a huge favorite last week but will be supported strongly again. Flowers N Songs comes down from a lucrative Canadian campaign and won’t be ignored by the crowd, though still could fall into third or fourth place in the betting. Ginny Weasley is coming around for Ake Svanstedt and could be a factor. However, there is a better chance than the odds will reveal that Earn Your Wings will take to this mile aggressively. She belongs with this class of filly.

The next nine, in elim heat two, are also evenly matched in that none have been able to dominate the others. Svanstedt has a trio in the group, all second-tier members of a division that is filled with that ilk. Womans Will may be considered the best here but losing to Side Bet Hanover (here again) last week showed she is not comfortable with simple adversity. Celebrity Eventsy has been in and out all season. It looks like Gin And Lindy could have a shot with a price here while being let go higher than her 7-2 price last week. She’s had some luckless miles but last week’s first half was much better than recently and in this field she may use her moves wisely enough to surprise a lot of people but certainly not trainer Frank Antonacci who always brings her to the track to fight it out.

KENTUCKY FUTURITY

A dozen of the top glamour-boy trotters are present in this $431,000 contest that only recently in its 124-year existence has surrendered the elim-heat format. Eleven of the colts will be trying hard for the purse while also attempting to deny Marions Marauder the low-profile trotting triple crown. It is best to support he won’t win the third jewel (Hambletonian and Yonkers Trot being the first two). In fact, in the light of how “Marauder” has become a star of the division, the prospects for betting Southwind Frank have become sounder than ever. For sentimental as well as sound reasons, Marauder will be the favorite. Bar Hopping will follow. Sutton could actually wind up the third choice off of his improvements since the Hambo, all of which allows for the situation few predicted (this blog being the exception) that “Frank” would be the bet here due to offering the odds that may make him the third or fourth choice.
 

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