Key contenders in the $266,740 Pick 6 carryover at Turf Paradise

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February 18th, 2021

Winter weather has taken its toll on racing at many tracks across the country, but Turf Paradise in Arizona is an exception. With sunny skies and (relatively) warm weather in the forecast, the Thursday agenda features a nine-race card highlighted by a $266,740 carryover in the 20-cent Grand Canyon Pick 6.

Want to take aim at a share of the jackpot? Let’s dig in and examine the sequence.

Wednesday recap

Wednesday’s Pick 6 sequence couldn’t have been more straightforward. Just 49 horses (averaging 8.2 per race) faced the starter, and every winner started at 33-10 or less. A $2 win parlay across the six winners would have returned just $74.13, yet the Pick 6 generated a solid payoff of $676.48. Blindly using the top three betting choices in each leg of the Pick 6 would have cost $145.80 for a profit of $530.68—not half bad when you think about it.

Thursday preview

Thursday’s Pick 6 sequence looks a bit more complicated with 58 entries in the mix before scratches. The action gets underway in Race 4 (post time 4:18 p.m. ET), a $7,500 maiden claiming race for sophomore fillies sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs on the main track. Unfortunately for bettors hoping to play on small budgets, a reasonable case can be made for using at least six of the eight entrants.

The morning line has pegged #7 Tequila Diva (3-1) as the favorite in her first start for high-percentage trainer Justin Evans. The daughter of Violence is dropping down sharply in class and distance after competing on the Southern California circuit, where she came closest to victory when fifth for a $30,000 tag at Los Alamitos.

But don’t sleep on the chances of the first-time starters #1 Copper Charm (5-1) and #3 Lady Lana (6-1). Copper Charm hails from the barn of Scott Rollins, who strikes at a 27% rate with runners debuting in maiden claiming races. Meanwhile, Lady Lana is trained by Don Schnell, a hot conditioner who has gone 7-for-21 (33%) at Turf Paradise this meet. Spreading deep might be the best way to kick off the Pick 6.

If there’s a single to count on in this competitive sequence, it might be #5 My Golden Boy (7-2) in Race 5, a $30,000 maiden optional claiming race. The son of English Channel hasn’t missed the trifecta in three starts over the Turf Paradise turf course, most recently coming home second over this class level and distance on Feb. 2. Considering My Golden Boy hadn’t run in nearly eight months, his effort was solid, and he’s eligible to take a step forward in his second start of the season.

Concluding the sequence is Race 9, a $3,500 starter allowance race over 7 1/2 furlongs on turf. In terms of recent Brisnet Speed ratings, #2 Shinny (3-1) is the horse to beat for hot trainer Robertino Diodoro, who has gone 6-for-20 (30%) at Turf Paradise this meet.

But although Shinny was beaten just a neck against $10,000/$8,500 claiming company last month, he’s done his best running on dirt and hasn’t come close to winning in two starts on turf. If the surface switch trips him up, then #8 Dynamite Lad (5-1)—third over this course, class level, and distance on Feb. 1—can steal the show.

Good luck!