Homeracing

Kicking off Thanksgiving week at Churchill Downs with an Awesome Thought

Profile Picture: Ed DeRosa

November 25th, 2015

Churchill Downs closes its November meeting and 2015 racing this week, and I'll be sorry to see it go. Not because I'm crushing it--I haven't had a winning day yet--but because the racing has been fun to watch and handicap on a daily basis.

A good mix of favorites and longshots have combined to create big payoffs. I haven't connected, but an average win price of $14.70 with more than a third favorites winning means if you land on the right winner you can get a good piece of the Pick 4s paying an average of $1,636 for $.50. Considering at least one winning favorite on average is in each of those Pick 4s, that's not bad!

CHURCHILL DOWNS AT A GLANCE
Avg. Winning Odds: 6.35 - 1
Favorite Win%: 34%, Favorite Itm%: 71%
EXOTICS $2 avg. PAYOFF
Exacta 141.42
Daily Double 120.10
Trifecta 1,118.13
Pick 3 967.29
Superfecta 7,982.27
Pick 4 6,472.40
Pick 5 44,024.63
Pick 6 Jackpot 53,906.51
Super High Five 16,395.68

Our approach to kick off closing week will be to get Feature Vanity home a winner in race 3 (leg 3 of the early Pick 4) and build something to make some caveman plays in the middle (races 4-7) and late (7-10) Pick 4s. My ABC grid for the 10-race card is below.

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