Kilroy: Evangeline Downs Pick 5 for May 13

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May 13th, 2022

Deciding to single a favorite like #4 Touchuponastar (8-5) comes with consequences, especially when diving into a pool the size of Evangeline Downs’ late Pick 5 on Friday. If we don’t stab at prices in the other legs, we’ll knock heads against 90% of the other tickets. We need to find prices, or we should simply pass and save our bankroll for another day. But, hey, it’s Friday—we ain’t got nothing to do. And if the morning lines hold, we can steal some equity in the kick-off leg. Let’s discuss.

Race 5: Dirt 5 1/2  Furlongs Clm 5000N3L 3yo & up fillies and mares

As: Here’s the facts: The Ramirez and the Broberg horses will be on the majority of tickets based on connections. Perfect opportunity for us to find the horse that can win, not the trainer. Let’s fire it up with the class dropper #3 K R Lucky Day (15-1) who has run her best on Evangeline Downs' dirt track. And as always, in Cid the Kid we trust, so let’s stab for value here with #1 Don'tbaggagecheck (10-1)

Bs: A nice outside post could set up the rateable #8 Blue Ridge Heat (6-1) for a score against these. #9 Brave Nugget (5-1) is fresh, consistent, and stepping down in class.

Race 6: Dirt 5 Furlongs Clm 5000N2L 3yo & up statebred fillies

As: #5 Blue Ridge Romance (8-1) could wire this field at a price we can’t ignore. #6 Prayers Saved (5-2) could be overlooked and still offer value given how heavy I believe the Devereux horse will be bet. Blinkers off after hanging last time could make the difference for Prayers Saved today. 

Race 7: Dirt 7 Furlongs Md Sp Wt 25k 3yo & up statebreds 

A: 4 Touchuponastar (8-5) was much the best last time but stumbled out of the gate and couldn't get the win. Faces easier today. Free space.

Race 8: Turf 1 Mile Clm 20000(20-15)N2L 3yo & up

As: Seeing closers do well so far on this Evangeline turf track, let’s use that to our advantage and take the late pace specialists and most formful price entries: #1 Poseidon Wrath (8-1), #1A Paralissfrmanalyss (8-1),  #4 Intimidation (5-2), and #6 Mucho Veloce (10-1).

Race 9: Dirt 6 Furlongs Md 7500 3yo & up statebred fillies

As: #3 Saberfight (8-1)’s sire has a strong first-time starter percentage, which is a profitable angle especially important given our strategy of singling our hopes on the elephant in the pool in the 7th. #6 Katie's C (5-1) has taken two strong Brisnet Speed figure steps forward since the layoff—one more and she’s beating this field.