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Homeracing

Kinross the pick to topple Pinatubo in 2000 Guineas

Profile Picture: Vance Hanson

June 5th, 2020

The belated first classics of the English racing season take place this weekend at Newmarket, beginning with Saturday's 2000 Guineas (G1) over the Rowley Mile. #12 Pinatubo enjoyed a remarkable juvenile campaign of six wins from six starts last season and is justifiably the odds-on favorite in the field of 15 colts.

Pinatubo couldn't be described as Frankelesque, but that doesn't mean he can't maintain his undefeated record. It won't be easy to knock off the highest-rated English juvenile highweight in a quarter-century.

From a bettor's perspective, though, there's no guarantee Pinatubo will continue to lord over his peers. Pinatubo came to hand rather early and maintained that advantage all the way through autumn. A number of his rivals on Saturday, although far less accomplished to date, have had plenty of time to catch up physically.

I'm willing to be proved wrong, but I'm betting against Pinatubo being a death-and-taxes type like Frankel, especially at such a short price.

Watching his debut at Newmarket last October, #7 KINROSS (12-1) immediately shot up my personal list of Guineas horses to follow. It was a tremendous effort as the son of Kingman (who surprisingly lost his only start in the 2014 edition of the Guineas) stylishly romped by eight lengths.

A short-priced contender in the Vertem Futurity Trophy (G1) next out, Kinross failed to follow-up on that early promise. However, that race had to be transferred from an unusable turf at Doncaster to the all-weather at Newcastle, a surface that's totally a different ballgame. He also incurred a significant bump a quarter-mile into the race and didn't recover in a fifth-place effort.

Trainer Ralph Beckett and jockey Harry Bentley remain high on Kinross, and so will I at odds that figure at or around double digits.

Besides Pinatubo, Godolphin has another interesting Guineas contender in #8 Military March (15-1), who won on debut over the July Course last summer and then came back 2 1/2 months later to beat #1 Al Suhail a half-length in the course-and-distance Autumn (G3). Potentially more of an Epsom Derby (G1) threat as he's by New Approach and out of mare that won the Yorkshire Oaks (G1) and Ribblesdale (G2), Military March could still make his presence felt here.

The bets:

  • Win on #7 Kinross.
  • Exactas on #7 Kinross over #8 Military March and #12 Pinatubo.

The 2000 Guineas is Race 5 at Newmarket on Saturday with a scheduled post time of 10:35 a.m. ET. You can watch and wager at TwinSpires.com.

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