Kristufek: Sunday's Arlington Park Pick 5 Carryover Wagers

Profile Picture: Joe Kristufek

August 12th, 2018


Being a legit horseplayer means being more of an investor than a gambler. There are a lot of differentiating qualities, including hard work, patience, discipline and perhaps most importantly, taking advantage of opportunities.

Huge longshots in the first two legs of the Million Day Pick Five at Arlington helped fuel a $375,446 carryover pool for Sunday’s card. According to my counterpart Ed DeRosa, that’s the fourth largest in the history of North American racing.

Let’s dig in!

4th Race (4:09 p.m. EDT)

Although this race goes through the Wayne Catalano-trained #1 Gwendalyn Sue, there are a couple others I’m interested in that will offer a better price. The likely favorite has finished second in all five starts (three times on turf) and although she could be in line for a golden trip from the rail, it’s tough for me to single her. #3 Cloche finished just behind her in their last encounter and a wide trip didn’t do her any favors. #8 J. A. Curlin, Catalano’s other runner, also intrigues. She debuted around two turns on turf and finished a professional third. Her last two sprints didn’t go nearly as well, but a return to routing on turf could be just what the doctor ordered.

5th Race

Purchased for $350,000 at the OBS March 2017 2-year-olds in training sale, #2 Bold Friends has been a bit of a disappointment so far, but she faces a field she should be able to handle here. I’ll single her on the smaller budget ticket, but also use the newly gelded second-time starter #1 Northern Fire, who has every right to improve and is likely intended to show speed with E. T. Baird aboard, and #7 Our Thomas, who could benefit if the race falls apart.  

6th Race

The Lone Star invader #1 Quinn Murphy has been very consistent on grass and she appears to be very well intended here. #3 Dancing Waves ran one of the best races of her career last out at Churchill, winning smartly over a one-turn dirt mile. She’s had success on turf too and new trainer Mike Tomlinson, who has crushed it with limited Arlington starters this meet, shows confidence by jumping her up in class.

7th Race

On paper, this race has the most potential for chaos in the sequence, so I’m spreading deep and hoping for the best-case scenario, which likely would be #6 Fringe, who broke through with a better than it looks maiden score last out. #1 On My Toes and #4 Air Turbulence have the recent class edge; #3 Running Vicky and #8 Glory Train defeated similar in their most recent turf runs; and #9 Holy Cookie appears to be rounding back into top form.

8th Race

The likely favorite, #3 Game Time Decision, is the most talented female in this race, but it’s tough to completely trust her. And for Pick Five purposes, I’d love to beat her if I can. #1 Prairie Chick has returned to top form, and she might work a golden trip up the rail. #8 Speed Devil is naturally talented. She disappointed last out, but has posted a sharp work since.

The Tickets

Larger budget

.50 Pick Five: 1, 3, 8 with 1, 2, 7 with 1, 3 with 1, 3, 4, 6, 8, 9 with 1, 3, 8 = $162

Smaller budget

.50 Pick Five: 1, 3, 8 with 2 with 1, 3 with 1, 3, 4, 6, 8, 9 with 1, 3, 8 = $54