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Homeracing

Late Pick 4 analysis for Keeneland on October 14

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TwinSpires Staff

October 13th, 2018

Keeneland (c) Coady Photography

by Scott Shapiro

The second weekend of the Keeneland fall meeting concludes with a nine-race card on Sunday afternoon.

As usual a late Pick 4 sequence is available over the final four races.

Here are my thoughts:

RACE 6

A high-level optional claimer at 6 1/2 panels kicks the sequence off.

Maybe Wicked (#4) is the 6-5-morning line favorite off of a solid runner-up effort at odds-on at legendary Churchill Downs last month. In that six-furlong dash, the daughter of Mizzen Mast broke a tad slow when she looked like lone speed, forcing jockey Shaun Bridgmohan to stalk just off the early pace. The Brad Cox trainee was able to put away the other early zip and battle gamely to the wire, but could not hold off the eventual winner. With the way the Keeneland main track has been playing she will be very tough to beat if she can avoid another early tussle.

If Maybe Wicked takes a lot of heat from Go Lady Jay (#5) (5-1), Honor Way (#6) (4-1) is the likeliest to take advantage. The four-year-old filly ran a disappointing eighth against stakes company at Presque Isle Downs when last seen in August, but comes in fresh and has shown an affinity for hitting the wire first. Tyler Gaffalione picks up the mount for trainer Matt Shirer.

RACE 7

Several fillies appear to be in with a significant chance in this two-turn turf event for protected maidens, including first-time starter Andi’s Kitten (#2) (7-2). The Ken and Sarah Ramsey homebred is out of an Empire Maker mare who hit the board in four of seven over the sod for Mike Maker and has produced two full siblings who have earned $99,000 plus. I am slightly concerned that trainer Chad Brown did not race Andi’s Kitten at Saratoga this summer where she was training, but she is an obvious contender.

So are a pair of second-time starters who debuted at Kentucky Downs going 6 1/2 furlongs on September 13. Mary Celeste (#10) (3-1) finished second with Pordavino (#1) (6-1) back in seventh, but Pordavino draws much more favorably on Sunday. She can turn the tables and spring the upset at 6-1 on the morning line.

Maid in the Mist (#7) (6-1), She’s So Savy (#8) (12-1) and Lady Trish’s Dream (#12) (12-1) are not as likely to win, but the value they present makes them worth including.

RACE 8

Much like in the 6TH race, trainer Brad Cox has the likeliest winner in this six-furlong dash.

Curate (#2) (8-5) was extremely impressive on debut at Ellis Park when he dueled outside of a 3-5 favorite, put that runner away, and pulled away late to win by 4 1/4 lengths in the end. The fact he has not raced since then is a bit concerning, but a repeat of that performance gives him a huge shot to start his career a perfect two for two.

If the favorite fails to fire, perhaps Mo’s Mojo (#1) (5-1) or Prolific (#7) (12-1) can get the job done. Mo’s Mojo clearly needed his last off the 15-month break and Prolific posted an 89 BRIS Speed rating on debut last September before bleeding in his first start versus winners in the spring. They both will provide much greater value than Curate.

RACE 9

The finale features a few six-figure purchases who have not quite panned out for their connections, including Ego Trip (#5) (7-2). This $600,000 son of Bernardini won from well off the pace in his second career start for trainer Steve Asmussen, but has failed to get back to the winner’s circle since. Asmussen tried stakes competition on the lawn at Indiana Grand last month, but has seen enough after a last-place effort and entered him for $50,000 on Sunday. Ego Trip can win, but his lack of speed and negative pattern makes him a play against for me.

I will also toss 3-1-morning-line favorite Commandeering (#3). The E Five Racing Thoroughbreds colt has shown an affinity for finishing second, not first, and was unable to do better than third in his first effort at the claiming ranks on September 22 at Churchill Downs. At his price he is worth fading.

TICKET 1: (50 cents)

Race 6: 4
Race 7: 1+2+7+8+10+12
Race 8: 1+2+7
Race 9: 1+4+8+9

Ticket Cost: $36

TICKET 2:

Race 6: 4+6
Race 7: 1+2+7+8+10+12
Race 8: 2
Race 9: 1+4+8+9

Ticket Cost: $24

TOTAL BUDGET: $60

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