Late Pick 4 Strategy at Monmouth Saturday

Profile Picture: James Scully

July 15th, 2016

Monmouth Park offers a 10-race card Saturday and I will preview the Late Pick 4, which runs Races 7-10.

Race 7, a $20k conditioned claimer for fillies and mares, features a full field and the 5 ½-furlong turf sprint lacks a standout. I’ll spread seven-deep on the main Pick 4 ticket and narrow on the back-ups with #5 Shea D Girl, #8 Get Air Lex and #10 R Known Fact.

In Race 8, #6 Sues Stones rates as the most likely winner in the sequence. A good second last time, the 3-year-old filly drops to the $25k state-bred maiden claiming level and appears ready to graduate for trainer Derek Ryan and jockey Paco Lopez.

The outside horses in Race 9, #6 Lazurus Project and #7 Vees Boy, are likely too fast for the competition in the one-mile entry-level allowance/optional claiming event. The former registered a field-best 93 BRIS Speed rating finishing third versus solid competition in his Monmouth debut while the latter posted a 91 Speed rolling to a 3 ¾-length maiden tally over the track for Todd Pletcher.

Race 10, a contentious $12.5k claimer for fillies and mares at a mile on turf, is ripe for at least a minor upset and I’ll include seven horses on the main ticket. #6 Kent’s Baby Girl can’t be eliminated at expected short odds and a pair of better-priced distaffers, #4 Don’s Escapade (8-1 morning line) and #7 Honorable Love (10-1), will also be used on the back-ups.

.50-cent Pick 4 Tickets

Utilizing a $69 budget, my main ticket will single Sue Stones in the second leg. She’ll also be used on one of the back-ups, with the potential to hit the Pick 4 twice with shorter-priced horses in the surrounding races.

Ticket 1 ($42): 2,3,4,5,7,8,10 with 6 with 6,7 with 1,4,6,7,8,9 ($42)

Ticket 2 ($9): 5,8,10 with 6 with 6,7 with 4,6,7

Ticket 3 ($18): 5,8,10 with 4,8 with 6,7 with 4,6,7