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Homeracing

Laura Pugh predicts Kentucky Derby 142 finishing order

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TwinSpires Staff

May 5th, 2016

by LAURA PUGH

For weeks I’ve been ranking Kentucky Derby Top Twenty, ranking each horse by their chances to make the Kentucky Derby field. Now, it is for the finale.

With the Kentucky Derby draw for 2016 in the books, ladies and gents, I give you my picks from the winner to the last loser to cross the finish line.

1.) Outwork

2.) Exaggerator

3.) Nyquist

4.) Gun Runner

5.) Suddenbreakingnews

6.) Mohaymen

7.) Mor Spirit

8.) Creator

9.) Majesto

10.) My Man Sam

11.) Brody’s Cause

12.) Destin

13.) Mo Tom

14.) Shagaf

15.) Whitmore

16.) Lani

17.) Oscar Nominated

18.) Danzing Candy

19.) Tom’s Ready

20.) Trojan Nation.

The draw has set up for a very solid pace early, which could set this up for horses coming from off the pace.

Danzing Candy, a horse who NEEDS the lead, drew post 20. He will need to gun it to establish the early lead, and with him being so close to the crowd, it is very possibly he overreacts and takes hold of the bit.

Mohaymen, who has been training like a pack of energizer bunnies, also gives the impression that he may want to be close to, if not on the lead. His post position 14, could easily allow that to happen as the only speed to his inside is Nyquist (13).

The other pace presence, Outwork, has drawn post 15, which should allow him to sit comfortably off whomever may establish early dominance. This should allow him the ability to get the first jump once the pace begins to slow down, giving him the best chance to hit the wire first.

A swift pace will help the likes of mid-pack runners and deep closers such as Exaggerator and Suddenbreakingnews. Gun Runner also looks to sit a good trip right behind the leaders, I just wonder if he’ll have enough to overcome Nyquist while fending off the late charge of some others.

Despite the pace, I believe we will see Nyquist hanging around. The amount of foundation put into him may look light this year, but that is only on races run. His morning exercises have been long and stamina building, which should help him late, when others grow leg weary.

So, there you have it. Not just a Kentucky Derby top four or five but a ranking of the entire field!

Only time will tell if I am correct, but now I have a question for you. How do you believe the 142nd Kentucky Derby will play out, after the conclusion of the post position draw?

 

Photo courtesy Churchill Downs/Coady Photography.

 

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