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Homeracing

Leaning on Track Trends: Pick 5 for Evangeline Downs on May 18

Profile Picture: Kevin Kilroy

May 17th, 2022

Knowing what running styles are winning at what distance on each surface helps. We are deep enough into the Evangeline Downs meet to know frontrunners are faring quite well going one mile on the main track — E and E/P runners have won 68% of the first 53 races.

Brisnet Past Performances are an essential tool in keeping tabs on how a track is playing. We have two races at this distance on Wednesday. With a smaller sample size of 12 turf routes to look at, still only two frontrunners have won, the rest coming from wide, closing trips. This covers four races where we can narrow down our selections by running style, giving us an edge, offering equity, and hopefully writing our check.

We won’t use all the running styles that fit, so I’ve narrowed it down to the contenders. Also, every trend can be overcome by the right horse, so I’ve used a few as Bs that don’t fit this lens.

AB
R4
1A, 5
7, 8
R5
4, 6
R6
5
4
R7
1, 5
4
R8
3, 6, 7
1, 4
  • All As: $12
  • 4 As and 1 B: $32
  • All As and Bs: $80

Race 4: Dirt, 6 1/2  Furlongs Clm 5000N2Y 3yo & up

A: We’ve got to take #1A I’ll Raise You (2-1) because he appears to be the lone speed. A consistent claim-back from Karl Broberg, the only knocks on this consistent six-year-old are: others have topped his speed figure ceiling, and he won aided by the pace dynamic last out. If this portion of the coupled entry scratches, then I’ll pass on the homage to Seahawks glory, closer #1 Wilson to Lockett (2-1). #5 Off Sixes (9-2) had to overcome a far outside draw last race, but then he couldn’t capitalize on a perfect loose pressing trip. Should get the same trip here. 

Bs: #7 Too Much Bourbon (8-1) has run well against this level since the addition of blinkers and should have no trouble working out a trip and being in the mix late. Class-dropping #8 Outlaw X (3-1) poses a threat, though shortening up from two turns to a distance where he is only 1-for-6. 

Race 5: Turf, about 1 1/16 miles Alw 24000N1X 3yo & up fillies

As: #4 Angel of Verdun (8-5) has a 10.1 Prime Power point advantage here. She has tactical options and rider Vicente Del-Cid to use them. Trainer Brett Brinkman has taken #6 Duepeg (12-1) back to the woodshed for five morning works since her last race after a disappointing winter at Fair Grounds. Having every reason to enter her for a tag, he chooses this first-level allowance instead.

Race 6: Dirt, 1 Mile Clm 5000N3L 3yo & up

A: With 38 second/third-place finishes and six wins between them, the three likely favorites in here are tough to swallow. Let’s take the speed of the speed, #5 Hot Stove League (4-1). Moving up from non-winners of two, trainer Joseph Felks has this Hit it a Bomb four-year-old fit and in fine form, ready to live up to expectations.

B: Every hanger has his day, so let’s include #4 Flashburn (6-1) in case he gets loose on the lead.

Race 7: Turf, about 1 Mile OC 20k/C 3yo & up statebreds

As: This race is a hard nut to crack because they all are capable of winning this on their best day. #1 City Park (9-5) has the running style and the post position to save ground, tip out, and make a big late run. Yes, it was a difficult winter at Fair Grounds, but it wasn’t long ago that #5 Jaci's Royalty (6-1) had the form to romp against this field. Fresh and ready to fire at a price.

B: #4 Forestdungone (2-1) is a need-the-lead frontrunner who has won two in a row. Last summer he proved he can hold form, and though a likely favorite who runs against the track profile, we have enough prices in our other skinny legs that we should include him here, if only to ensure we are alive to the final leg. 

Race 8: Dirt, 1 Mile Md 7500 3yo & up

As: #3 Kannon with a K (7-2) dueled with the second-favorite through the backstretch last time out, but still he fought hard to the wire. He has every reason to improve if he can not be pressured here. If #6 Luckly Gold (20-1) gets the lead, he could be bold and show his worth in his third start against these longtime maidens. #7 Unbridled Hope (6-1) should be able to get a nice trip from this post with the return to two turns after showing a nice early kick in his last sprint. 

Bs: #1 Shoetrick (5-2) settled on the rail and made a nice closing run going wide last out, but couldn’t catch next-out-winner Xietelehuas. #4 Palimonium (3-1) has been the beaten favorite four times out of 12 runs, but with his speed figures, I would hate to miss a payday omitting him here. 

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