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Homeracing

Let 8 Ride At Arlington Without a Net

Profile Picture: Ed DeRosa

Ed DeRosa

August 19th, 2015

I normally wait until early Thursday afternoon to dish on #Let8Ride because it allows me to handicap post scratches, and when you’re in survive-and-advance mode every $8 and non-runner counts, but I’ll be at Ikea for tomorrow’s festivities and don’t want to miss an opportunity to extend my streak to three in a row!

For those looking to simply advance to Friday and be one win away from guaranteed money on Saturday, the morning line tells the story: Five horses are between 5-to-2 and 5-to-1 on the line while the other four horses are all either 20- or 30-to-1.

If you want to give yourself every chance to play for the $1,500 in added money available beginning with Saturday’s races, then just use 1, 2, 7, 8, 9 and call it a day, but if you want to get cheeky then I actually anticipate there will be some value on the morning line favorite #2 Out of the Woods.

There have been 91 six-furlong races this meeting at Arlington International Racecourse, and 39 of them have been won in gate-to-wire fashion with another 23% coming from early presser front-runner types. What’s more, 18% have come from posts 1, 2, or 3 (26% from the rail). It’s not a big jump to conclude from those numbers that inside speed is the ideal trip here, and Out of the Woods should get it since #1 Bull Market Richie won’t make the lead and #3 A Big a Bad Bill looks hopeless against these.

My biggest concern with Out of the Woods is that he needed 5 ½ furlongs to win after spitting the bit at this trip, but those races were against straight maidens and a faster pace than he saw last time and is likely to see here “dropping” into the $7,500 level from the maiden claiming ranks.

Out of the Woods is fair value in this spot at his morning line price, and I will bet him to win at it or above.

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