Lone Star Park: Stakes spot plays for Memorial Day

Profile Picture: J. Keeler Johnson

May 30th, 2021

Lone Star Million Day at Lone Star Park is shaping up to be a terrific afternoon and evening of horse racing.

The 11-race Memorial Day card features five stakes worth a combined $1.1 million, including the $400,000 Steve Sexton Mile (G3) and the inaugural $300,000 Texas Derby.

Interested in placing a few wagers on the action? We’ve put together a handful of a stakes spot plays to get you started:

Race 8: Chamberlain Bridge S. (five furlongs on turf, 7:01 p.m. ET)

#7 Chaos Theory (5-2) boasts a 3-for-3 record sprinting five furlongs on turf, highlighted by a stretch-running victory in the Green Flash H. (G3) at Del Mar last summer. The son of Curlin boasts a terrific turn-of-foot on his best day and enters off a solid third sprinting six furlongs against allowance company at Santa Anita. Cutting back to his preferred trip can send Chaos Theory to the Lone Star winner’s circle.

#6 Texas Wedge (2-1), runner-up in the Green Flash and placed against Grade 1 company, can battle with #3 Archidust (9-5) to complete the exacta.

$20 to win on #7 Chaos Theory
$5 Exacta: 7 with 3,6 ($10)

Race 9: Texas Derby (1 1/16 miles, 7:31 p.m. ET)

Grade 1 winners #9 Get Her Number (4-1) and #10 Super Stock (5-2) will draw plenty of attention while dropping in class for the Texas Derby, but I’m intrigued by the longshot #8 Dreamer’s Disease (12-1).

A fast front-runner who finished sixth in the 2020 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), Dreamer’s Disease has seen his recent form muddied by challenging circumstances. Two starts back, he stumbled severely at the start of the New York Stallion Series S. at Aqueduct, only to rush up and vie for the lead through quick fractions. It’s no surprise he faltered to finish seventh.

Then in the Pat Day Mile (G2) at Churchill Downs, Dreamer’s Disease got burned up chasing blazing fractions of :21.75 and :43.68 in his first start off a five-month layoff. Understandably, he faded to sixth place.

If Dreamer’s Disease breaks cleanly and shakes loose on an easier lead in the Texas Derby, he can outrun expectations at a big price.

$14 to win on #8 Dreamer’s Disease
$2 Exacta: 8 with 1,9,10 ($6)
Total: $20

Race 11: Steve Sexton Mile (G3, one mile, 8:35 p.m. ET)

#1 Silver Prospector (6-1) arguably moved too soon in the 1 1/8-mile Oaklawn H. (G2), sweeping into contention around the final turn before flattening out to finish sixth by 3 1/2 lengths. A two-time graded stakes winner, Silver Prospector had previously finished a good second when riding a slow rail in the 1 1/16-mile Razorback H. (G3), beaten only by next-out Dubai World Cup (G1) winner Mystic Guide.

Silver Prospector brings competitive Brisnet Speed ratings to the fold and has run well with inside journeys in the past, so drawing the rail sets the stage for a perfect trip. Jockey Ricardo Santana and trainer Steve Asmussen have teamed up to win the Steve Sexton Mile twice before, so let’s take a shot betting Silver Prospector on top.

$18 to win on #1 Silver Prospector
$1 Trifecta: 1 with 3,4,8 with 2,3,4,5,8 ($12)
Total: $30

Good luck!