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Homeracing

Making a Big Bet in the Breeders Futurity at Keeneland

Profile Picture: Ed DeRosa

Ed DeRosa

October 8th, 2016

I have no problem admitting that I'm prone to hyperbole when it comes to who I bet (e.g. Mac the Man, Wharton, Surgical Strike), but when it comes to what I bet. (i.e. how much) I'm a pretty straight shooter.

So when I say "I'm making the biggest win bet of my life on Classic Empire in the Breeders' Futurity" it's not only to grab attention but also to draw attention that this is the best wagering opportunity in the history of my life.

I don't say how much I'm actually betting because the amount in this case isn't relative. Put another way, one man's gold is another's gonnorhea--a $2 bettor who puts $50 on a horse is a lot more confident than a $1-million/year bettor who makes the same wager. For me, this 

There is a caveat, though: I need at least 2-to-1. Regardless of price, Classic Empire absolutely is my pick to win the Breeders' Futurity, but at less than 2-to-1 I'll need to hook him up in the exotics to do well, and when it comes to the Pick 4--with the presence of Tepin before him and Mondialiste afterward--I won't even necessarily be singling Classic Empire on every ticket. Indeed, at fair odds of 2-to-1, there's no onus to have him on every ticket, but he'll probably be on half.

Anyway, back to the race itself. Classic Empire wowed me at Churchill, and I was bullish on him in the Hopeful. I believe his connections that he expected to win that race. If he does, then he's probably even money in this spot. He didn't, so now we (hopefully) get twice the price. If he's as good as I think he is and wins today then we might not get this price again against this level of competition until the Kentucky Derby (I say "against this level" because I expect the Breeders' Cup Juvenile to be a tougher race then, say, the Tampa Bay Derby).

There are questions, though, which is why I'm demanding 2-to-1. Obviously he needs to keep his jockey on board, but additionaly there's the full field, short stretch, etc. He's the most likely winner, but I can't go to the mat on less than 2-to-1.

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