Mandatory-payout carryovers on tap at Churchill Downs, Golden Gate Fields

Profile Picture: J. Keeler Johnson

October 3rd, 2021

If you like chasing mandatory-payout carryovers, you’ll want to check out the action at Churchill Downs and Golden Gate Fields this afternoon.

Sunday is closing day at Golden Gate, which means the track’s $13,966 Pick 6 jackpot must be dispersed among all winning bettors—no unique winning ticket required. And in the event no one picks all six winners, the pool will be split among bettors who select the highest number of winning horses.

The same can be said about the Pick 6 jackpot on the table at Churchill Downs. Sunday is the last day of the current Churchill meet, which means the $78,530 prize pool in the 20-cent “Derby City 6” is slated for a mandatory payout.

Both wagers are well worth exploring, but we’ll focus our attention on Churchill Downs, reviewing each race in the Derby City 6 before assembling a ticket on a ~$40 budget:

Race 5: $20,000 Starter Allowance (seven furlongs)

#7 Flat Awesome Jenny (2-1) has won three straight races against $20,000 and $25,000 claiming company, stamping the daughter of Flat Out as a logical contender in her first start for hot trainer Norm Casse. But Flat Awesome Jenny is a one-dimensional late runner at the mercy of the pace, so #2 Jungle Juice (5-2)—a stakes-experienced mare with ample early speed—is worth including as a backup.

Race 6: $150,000 Maiden Claiming (seven furlongs)

Trainer Brad Cox wins at a 26% rate with second-time starters, and at a 30% rate with horses dropping down from maiden special weight to maiden claiming company. These stats point toward Cox’s class-dropping second-time starters #3 Doctor Nash (9-2) and #6 Rome (6-1) as the runners to beat in this seven-furlong dash for juveniles.

Race 7: Allowance (1 1/16 miles)

#4 Misty Veil (3-1) has developed into a dangerous pacesetter since being claimed in the spring by trainer Tom Amoss, cracking the exacta in four consecutive starts at Churchill, Saratoga, and Monmouth Park. Misty Veil is the field’s fastest filly on paper and will be tough to catch if she brings her A-game.

Race 8: Maiden Special Weight (one mile)

#3 Eivissa (5-2) posted a field-best 88 Brisnet Speed rating when finishing second over this distance and class level at Ellis Park last month. She’ll have every chance to graduate on Sunday, but we’ll also include #6 Sandstone (5-1), a second-time starter from the hot barn of Kenny McPeek.

Race 9: $80,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (seven furlongs)

You can make a case for almost anyone in this competitive sprint, so we’ll take a scattershot approach and include #2 Ebben (6-1), #4 Pneumatic (3-1), #6 Pyron (5-1), #7 Necker Island (7-2), #8 In Sky We Trust (15-1), and #9 Sonneman (7-2).

Race 10: Maiden Special Weight (one mile)

#2 Kizzy B (8-2), #3 Surrealist (7-2), and #9 Liberty Isle (4-1) have all placed multiple times against maiden special weight company, but the fact they’ve run a combined 26 times without winning is cause for pause. #10 Buongiorno Bee (12-1), who ran fifth in her debut over this distance and class level at Ellis Park in August, might have upside (and upset potential) for trainer Tom Drury, who strikes at a 22% rate with second-time starters.

20-cent Derby City 6: 2,7 with 3,6 with 4 with 3,6 with 2,4,6,7,8,9 with 2,3,9,10 ($38.40)

Good luck!