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Homeracing

Mucciolo: Kentucky Jockey Club Preview

Profile Picture: John Mucciolo

November 24th, 2017

Juveniles comprise the 12-race card at Churchill Downs on Saturday in one of my favorite days on the racing calendar. The $200,000 Kentucky Jockey Club S. (G2) is one of a pair of graded races carded and drew a massive field of 14 for the 1 1/16-mile test.  

GOTTA GO (#1) has won two straight following an unplaced debut and the Ian Wilkes trainee will aim to give this barn a second straight score in this race following the tally by McCracken in 2016. $250,000 son of Shanghai Bobby is unbeaten on this main oval and proved his class with a game tally in the Street Sense S. in a route debut last time.

DIAMOND KING (#2) ships in from Parx for conditioner Robert Reid and has done nothing wrong to date with a pair of clear sprint wins. Bay son of Quality Road might be the speed of the speed and the one to catch.

JOHN TIPMANN (#3) closed well on this surface last time in a stakes run following a poor start from the rail and some improvement is likely with the extra ground with which to work with. Ken McPeek pupil will be running on late.

ARRIVAL (#4) broke through with a maiden win in strong fashion last time on this strip and looks like a value player for Mark Casse. $800,000 son of Tapit earned a hefty 107 BRIS Late Pace number for that score and though he did have everything his own way through moderate splits last time, he is moving forward with every start.

The Dallas Stewart-trained GIVEMEAMINIT (#5) is still a maiden but owns a Grade 1 placing and comes off a fourth-place run against tons better in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1). Bay son of Star Guitar will appreciate the class relief on this occasion and surely wouldn’t be a surprise in this field.

ENTICED (#6) is a talented youngster shipping in from the Empire State for Kiaran McLaughlin. Well-bred son of Medaglia d’Oro ran a solid third in the Champagne S. (G1) most recently and I think he will thrive getting two turns to work with for the initial time. Junior Alvarado coming along to ride is a positive for sure. I will make him my top selection and tab him as a fine long-term prospect.

PROMISES FULFILLED (#7) is unbeaten from a pair of front-running wins to this point for Dale Romans and stretches out after beating allowance foes at seven-eighths last time. Chestnut colt was a sharp debut winner at Churchill and rates a chance if he can carry his early speed which I think he will.

HIGH NORTH (#8) broke his maiden last time and runs for the high-percentage barn of Brad Cox. Colt would need a big move forward but is not out of the question for excellent connections.

Steve Asmussen’s RERIDE (#9) is also unbeaten from a pair of lifetime races and made good going a route of ground when topping an allowance field at Keeneland in advance of this. Son of Candy Ride was an easy debut winner going 4 ½ furlongs on this oval at first asking and is obviously a talented and versatile colt with room for further improvement.

BRAVAZO (#10) is bred to run all day and the D. Wayne Lukas charge has a trio of route races under his belt to this point. Third in the Street Sense, he recorded a solid second at Keeneland in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) two prior, a race that followed a convincing maiden win at Churchill Downs. Dark bay colt has the early speed to stay in touch from the opening bell.

QUIP (#11) is two-for-two and drew off by 6 ½ lengths in an allowance race at Keeneland. Son of Distorted Humor has good early speed and looked comfortable going 1 1/16 miles last time en route to the dominant tally.

TIZ MISCHIEF (#12) has put in a pair of very good two-turn races this campaign and is training well leading up to this, including a bullet move two back. Dale Romans trainee is earned his best Speed figure when runner-up to a sharp winner on this main oval two prior.

LONE SAILOR (#13) was a head second in the Street Sense in preparing for this run and was third prior to that in the Breeders’ Futurity. Tom Amoss trainee looks on level terms with most or all in this field, though he will have to overcome a tough post draw.

PEPPERED (#14) was done no favors drawing widest of all and will also be making his dirt debut in the field. Reade Baker pupil is surely talented, though, and if he takes to the dirt he could be a contender with some improvement at a likely very big price.

Analysis

I think Enticed is the horse of the present and the future in this field and will key him on top. As for the vertical exotics, Gotta Go, Arrival and Reride are the trio I will use most.

My $1 trifecta plays are as follows:

6 with 1,4,9 with all = $36

6 with all with 1,4,9 = $36

1,4,9 with 6 with all = $36

Good luck playing the Kentucky Jockey Club!

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