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Homeracing

Northern Dancer key to guaranteed pools on Woodbine Mile Day

Profile Picture: James Scully

September 16th, 2016

The Woodbine Mile (G1) anchors guaranteed Pick 4 & Pick 5 pools on Saturday and Tepin will bring a seven-race win streak into her first start since mid-June. The champion turf mare runs well fresh and will be used as a single on my primary tickets, with Mutakayyef the lone saver following a close third to Arc favorite Postponed.

A far more contentious field of eight is entered for the Northern Dancer (G1) on the undercard and I’m hoping to get some separation in the 1 ½-mile turf affair. Grade 1 winners Big Blue Kitten, The Pizza Man, Wake Forest and World Approval bringing plenty of name recognition but I’ll go a different direction with Danish Dynaformer, a two-time Woodbine stakes winner at the distance and the 6-1 fourth choice on the morning line.

Danish Dynaformer exits a sneaky fifth in the Arlington Million (G1) in which he made up a lot of ground in the stretch, registering a 112 BRIS Late Pace rating, his fourth century-topping number in the last five starts. He posted a sharp score locally in the Spingspiel (G3) two back and possesses tactical speed, setting the pace in last year’s Northern Dancer while still a 3-year-old. The Roger Attfield-trained colt should enjoy a favorable trip within striking range of an expected moderate pace before offering a strong finish and I will play Danish Dynaformer in straight wagers as well.

Big Blue Kitten and The Pizza Man appear to have lost a step this season and 12 furlongs doesn’t look like an optimal distance for World Approval. Wake Forest, a head second in the Pan American (G2) at this distance earlier this year, is a saver along with the mare Button Down, who figures to show speed from her inside post and has held her own with males in the last two outings, the Nijinsky (G2) and Sky Classic (G2).

The Canadian kicks off the Pick 5 and Steip Amach invades from Europe in good form, registering top BRIS Class figures in her recent outings. I’m also keen on Faulifier, who appears to be making nice progress for Graham Motion as a 5-year-old. Probable favorite Dacita is 3-for-3 in New York for Chad Brown and 0-for-3 elsewhere; I will use her on a back-up ticket but will be hoping to beat her at short odds.

Two other events, a $40,000 optional maiden claimer and an entry-level allowance, are part of the sequence and I’ll spread in both.

Tickets ($100 budget)

The Pick 5 begins in Race 8 and I’ll play three tickets for the 20-cent minimum.

20-cent Pick 5 (Races 8-12):

1,3 with 2,5,6,8,9 with 1,4,8 with 1,3,5,6,9,10 with 8 ($36)

2,4,5 with 2,5,6,8,9 with 8 with 1,3,5,6,9,10 with 8 ($18)

1,3 with 2,5,6,8,9 with 8 with 1,3,5,6,9,10 with 2 ($12)

I’ll use the same horses in the Late Pick 4 that kicks off in Race 9.

20-cent Pick 4 (Races 9-12):

2,5,6,8,9 with 1,4,8 with 1,3,5,6,9,10 with 8 ($18)

2,5,6,8,9 with 8 with 1,3,5,6,9,10 with 2,8 ($12)

Good luck!

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