Not using potential false favorites in Churchill's Single 6

Profile Picture: Vance Hanson

July 2nd, 2016

We're hours away from the start from the Single 6 Jackpot mandatory payout at Churchill Downs, with a carryover of more than $700,000 and a total pool expected to exceed $3 million. Let the fireworks, for one astute bettor or more, begin.

Given the difficulty of the sequence, including a pair of stakes involving lightly-raced two-year-olds, I'm taking more of an action-bet approach to tonight's festivities. I also resolved to keep my outlay at under $100.

Although I didn't find any singles, I chose not to include a couple horses that figure to be well-used at short prices. In the first leg (race 4), the maiden Show Bound has burned a ton of money over the past year, finishing second or third in eight of nine starts, including the 2015 Bashford Manor (G3) (which happens to be tonight's feature). Even a drop into the claiming ranks last time failed to produce a victory. If he finally gets the job done tonight, I'll momentarily feel like a dunce but have no long-term regrets.

In the third leg (race 6), Dance Champion is taking another massive drop in class. Claimed for $62,500 six weeks ago, he's now running for a $15,000 tag. He may well clobber these with anything close to his best, but the vibes are too negative for me to use him.

I've tossed in a few longer shots to go with more logical contenders in a few of the races. Below is my caveman ticket. Best of luck to all those playing.

$.20 ticket beginning in Race 4 = $86.40

4,8,9 with 6,8 with 9,12 with 1,5,7,9 with 4,7,10 with 6,7,11

You can find all the reports for tonight's Churchill Downs program all in one place here.