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Homeracing

Pacers Pound Out ‘Levy’ IV; Mares Matchmaker Trio On Tap; Miami Pick 4 Forecast

Profile Picture: Frank Cotolo

April 7th, 2016

April rolls on, as does the George Levy Memorial Pacing Series at Yonkers Raceway. Along with its sister series, the Blue Chip Matchmaker for mares, our search for betting bargains among the big boys and mature mares continues. We’ve had a few big hits in the “Levy” and far less success with winners in the mares series (though most horses were solid contenders) but great-paying winners have no agenda, so we will be there for the overlays all the way to the finals. As well, we are shooting again for a Miami Valley Pick 4.

Continually hammering all pools, horses making the TwinSpires horses-to-watch list (H2W) become the talk of most weekend plays inspired by this blog as outside contenders no other handicapping source suggests pump the win, place, show and exotics’ pools. Always consider H2W horses when constructing your wagers.

Igniting the action, we look at Thursday, April 7, to our chosen “features,” again this week from Saratoga Harness. 

FEATURE
Saratoga /April 7
Race 7

If a horse stepping down after moderate-to-poor performances is all it takes to gain the public’s confidence, why would we do any further handicapping? In this race, we reject the morning-line choice and with delight enjoy the recent analysis of a 6-1 morning-line prediction for Quikwit. The Muscle Hill product raced once at Saratoga from a campaign at Dover and was second as a favorite in a fine performance. His excuses for losing at Dover twice before coming to New York are solid and his earning power in Delaware is, too. We can only hope that he is not revealed as a major contender here for a price at least as good as the morning-line maker forecasts. This race launches a Pick-4 stream.

FEATURE
Saratoga /April 7
Race 11

What may be the hidden bargain bet of the season so far will be leaving from post 6 in this conditioned event. Here Comes Karma will likely be poorly supported by anyone who puts great stock in the obvious elements of handicapping. But our investigative eyes, the same that pluck out huge upsets through the seasons, are stuck on “Karma.” At 23-1 in his third of as many races this season, Karma raced well slightly dropping into this class, losing and gaining ground twice in the same four-turn mile. The race before that he was 6-1 and made the toteboard with a strong brush. Were this race his most recent, he would hardly have a 25-1 morning-line. He certainly has a better chance than 25-1 but the public will embrace the questionable Quincy, who has already proven that a drop in class from Yonkers competition to upstate foes is no walk in the park. Even his qualifier is not as impressive as it looks considering trotters participated.

MAKE ME A MATCH

Three more $40,000 divisions of the Blue Chip Matchmaker highlight the April 8 program at Yonkers.

Race 5 features six opponents, all back from series’ action over the past three weeks. Four of them are still looking for a win this season and Hazmatt is looking for his sixth win of eight starts. We backed Jungle Genie N last week and she was a double-digit pay for third. In another division we supported Venus Delight, defending champ of the series, who has not been up to speed in three starts. Mach It A Par has been on the board seven of eight times already since January and may look to lead this group all the way. However, we will go with Jungle Genie N once more, looking for a strong off-the-pace charge against a speedy three-quarters burned to a crisp by the aforementioned. 

Race 6 sends seven mares flying and again there is a speed duel pending, as Yagonnakissmeornot, Anndrovette and Sell A Bit N could all get stingy for the front spot. This makes for a good scenario where Regil Elektra can once again zip by them when it counts. The most dangerous, however, could be Skippin By from the rail. After two strong attempts in the series, which were her first two of the season, she could be ready to take advantage of Yonkers’ golden rail and have enough left to take a division and improve from there.

The Matchmaker nightcap finds series’ streaking Al Raza N on the far outside and Krispy Apple in a spot where she won’t get the tough outside trip she did last week when dueling to get the top. However, if she shuffles with Lady Shadow, leaving from the rail, the two could cancel one another out. This is good for “Raza” but it is also good for Delightful Dragon, who could be in the best spot for a winning charge when it counts most for us, and at a price.

MIAMI MAYHEM

Miami Valley’s Pick 4 on Saturday, April 9 is featured in Races 9-12.

Claiming pacers start in Race 9, the first leg of Saturday night’s Miami Valley Pick 4. Entering off a claim, Strange Hanover has the ability to take this field wire-to-wire from post 7 but while he should be included on the ticket, Waterside Champ could be included, looking competitive. He has raced well given his draws in recent starts and he should be a major player in the stretch.

More claimers compete in round two, Race 10 of this sequence. Sunday Poker returns to the $15,000 level after being caught first over for the course of the mile. While he’ll likely take a chunk of public dollars he’s essential to use here along with Cactus Billy and Metro John. Both of these pacers have been aggressive at this level, with Cactus Billy coming from off the pace to claim third at this level and Metro John grinding his way to this class. 

The third leg, race 11, is a conditioned pacing event. Life Is Good Today will be one of the two contenders in this race, dropping in class and drawing inside after parking the mile. He’ll likely head for the pocket and attempt to sling shot by the leader late.

Lookinforadventure is the other contender here. He dueled on the lead in his first start since dropping from the Open ranks. He should get a mid-pack spot from the second tier and work out a trip from there.

Concluding the Pick 4 is Race 12, another conditioned pacing event. To the inside, Talk Strategy and Our Dragon King should be big factors in the mile. That duo is the class of the race, having multiple encounters at the Open level. From the rail, Talk Strategy should try to out-sprint his competition, while Our Dragon King’s approach will be stalking a pace that could collapse.

LEVY LOG #4

Another quartet of Levy divisions center the Yonkers program on April 9. As we go into this chapter, here are some statistics on our choices in the first three legs.

Through leg three, there have been 15 races. We gave blog followers five winners (33 percent). Two of 15 finished second (13 percent). None finished third (0 percent). Eight of 15 finished off the board (53 percent). The average win price our horses paid to blog followers who played all five winners was $13.00 (three of the five winners paid double digits). On a $2.00 win-bet basis, the cost of playing all of the blog’s win selections was $30.00 and the return was $65.00.

This week, the Levy quartet of divisions begins with Race 6. Take It Back Terry, who has dominated over the first three legs, is in this field for trainer Ron Burke. “Terry” will no doubt get strong support and be the favorite. One of our winners, Santa Fe Beachboy, leaves sixth of the seven, but may not get the wonderful trip he got in a softer division. The crowd should measure Phil Your Boots as the second choice.

We like Ideal Cowboy’s chances for an upset. He has raced only four times and although Terry has been more productive in his quartet of starts, Ideal Cowboy has been on the board three of his four races. You can toss out last week’s Levy attempt as he left from post 8 (note, however, that he gained 11 lengths to finish sixth by only 3 lengths). He is almost certain to go off at higher odds than his chances of getting his first victory of the season.

Race 7 is the second Levy division and features the strongest cast of the evening with its seven stallions that have rocked the series so far. Certainly the focus will be on post 1 where Wiggle It Jiggleit leaves. Last week the betting public loved him so much that they hammered the win pool though he left from post 7. He finished second and his post position was given by most as the excuse he did not finish first. Be that as it may, the winner, All Bets Off, went to the top and fired big for a 1:51.3 score and he will certainly try to take command again, regardless of how “Wiggle” leaves.

Does this set up the duel I mistakenly expected last week when I thought All Bets Off was In The Arsenal? As well, Lucan Hanover is here and he will have to adjust to the early speed since he is much the front-pacing type. It doesn’t matter at all to us because we are going to get another great price on P H Supercam, who will revel at the quicksilver starts forecasted. Wiggle still has to prove, as do the other two mentioned aside from “PH,” that he belongs with this mixed aged group. The three speedsters are graduates of their sophomore campaigns, while PH is the veteran with the best credentials and here with a price well worth backing.

Race 8 is a weaker group dominated, no doubt, by Bit Of A Legend N. He can take the top or close down the short stretch but he will be the main element here as he has been in each of his Levy battles thus far. Last week Bettorever showed early lick but he will have some trouble doing that from post 7 against the likes of Limelight Beach and Let’s Drink On It (who is back from a win in a lower class at Philadelphia and draws the wood).

Although the race seems to set up for “Legend,” we will go with the price on Lettucerockthem A. This is only his fourth start for trainer Rene Allard and he is in a good spot to get an easy trip and, hopefully, head or nose Legend as that one puts on the gas late.

The Levy closing crew for round four offers another seven stalwart stallions, this group with many arguments available for each. Defending champion Domethatagain could get strong support, which will be more than he deserves. Last week we backed Bettor Rock On N and we’ll come right back to him in this evenly matched group. A good price is guaranteed, even though his 2016 credentials are better than those for Domethatagain.

H2W Legend

Review our choices and follow the wagering at the prescribed track. These are possible contenders we have judged from reviewing races. The horses’ names are listed beneath the name of the track after the date they will be racing. The race in which they are entered (R and race number) follows. If a + is in front of a horse’s name it means it is appearing on the list for the second (and last) time because it failed to win the first time it appeared. An “ae” signals the horse is entered on the also-eligible list. If a horse is listed twice, refer to the entries on the night of the race since a horse may enter in more than one race. Types of wagering on any of the H2W listed horses are based on your judgment. If you have any questions, email us at TwinSpires.

H2W LIST

Buffalo
4/8/16, +Outlaw Blues R10

Cal Expo
4/9/16, Bit Player R9
4/10/16, Genuine Desire R1; Notable Intention R5; +Who Dat Love R7; Dark Prince R8; +Red Star Wild One R8

Century
4/9/16, +Come On Kathryn R2; +Warrawee Rap R5; Twin B Right Way R8; +Witch Doctor R9; Hoofenanny R10

Dover
4/7/16, Laurie Lin R12; Leviathan R12

Flamboro
4/10/16, +Lyons Levi Lewis R10

Freehold
4/7/16, Austin Rocks R1; Coronations K R3; Roadway R4; +His Open Waters R5; +Elle’s Boy R6; Beach Fighter A R9

Hoosier
4/7/16, +Addie Rose R6
4/8/16, +All Pink R4; +Lovethewayoulook R6; +Velocity Lana R6

Meadowlands
4/8/16, Selfie Hanover R2; Brookroad Knight R4; Royal Becca J R6
4/9/16, Liscloon R2

Meadows
4/9/16, Acadia AS R6; Finding Terror R9; +Davids Dream R11
4/11/16, +Wire Me Cash R6

Miami
4/8/16, +Blind Spot Hanover R3; +Addys Way R11; +Gran Gabriel R12
4/9/16, Peck Blue Chip R13

Mohawk
4/7/16, +Dorabella R9
4/8/16,  +I Jasmin R1; +Ostinato R4; +War Filly R7; +Arrivista Hanover R7; +Regally Ready R8; +Dazzle N Delight R10

Monticello
4/7/16, +Amazing Quest R1

Northfield
4/9/16, Forever Lover R2; People Like Me R4; Sgt Molly Pitcher R8; KJs Foxy Lady R11

Northville
4/8/16, +Bobarhetta R7

Philadelphia
4/7/16, +Raven Victory R3; Smoke Pan Mirrors R4; +Top Gear ae R7; DWs NY Yank R5
4/8/16, +Tigers Too Good R1; +Top Gear ae R7; Rocklindarock R12
4/10/16, +Hugh Hefner N ae R3

Pocono
4/9/16, +Wishforabeachouse R9; +Its Payday Friday R13
4/10/16, +Go Daddy Go R9

Pompano
4/9/16, Rel Cash Clown R1

Rosecroft
4/10/16, +Romantic Escape R1; +Text Me Hanover R11

Saratoga
4/9/16, New Miracle ae R4; +American Force R4; Meetyouatmidnight R6; +Avantage R11

Scarborough
4/9/16, A Hard Days Night R2; +Cruize Commander ae R5; Can You Fly ae R9
4/10/16, Rylan Express R2

Western Fair
4/8/16, Missus Big R6; Little Whiskey Gal R10

Yonkers
4/7/16, Calipari R2
4/9/16, Sunfire Blue Chip R12
4/11/16, +Well Well Well R4; +Cheyenne Jeffret R6
 

Ray Cotolo contributes to each edition

 

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