Pennsylvania, Ohio Profile Glamour Sophomore Pacers; Philly Features; Four For Miami Again
Take a breath because the glamour-and-girl pacers are revving up for state-bred stakes competition as the 2016 season gets into stride. This week we will feature Ohio-bred soph-filly pacers at Miami Valley and Pennsylvania-bred colts and fillies.
The latter take the limelight in eliminations for recently-increased-in-value events on the lucrative Keystone State circuit. Speaking of Pennsylvania, we begin again this week at Harrah’s Philadelphia with two “selected features” that attract top stock due to the purse-inflated meet in the commonwealth.
On we go, also, adding suggested contenders to beat the public at the Miami Valley Pick 4 this Friday.
Our annual, exclusive blog that follows the eligible trotters to the classic races begins this week with eliminations for the Dexter Cup. Check it out weekly.
The TwinSpires horses-to-watch list (H2W) already shows signs of thriving for the 2016 season with its potent outside contenders. Exclusive horses on our list that rarely appear on any handicapping source in print or on the web. Prepare to hammer the win, place, show and exotic pools. Always consider H2W horses when constructing your wagers.
This weekend’s analysis begins on Thursday, April 7, with chosen “features,” from Harrah’s Philadelphia.
Philadelphia /April 28
This group of wayward trotters gather in a conditioner that may not be as competitive as it looks. Two in the contest stand out for us, though the crowd may think differently. From post 4, BWT Taj has a pair of recent races this month that could put him in charge when it counts most. The Broadway Hall product seems to have a hold on his gait problems and is embracing the Philadelphia track.
To his outside, in post 7, Doc’s Tebow was super at Pocono and should be a big threat to the probable favorites. Fans of drivers will notice the driver change and most likely penalize the New York-bred for a change to David Miller and we would applaud that mistake as it works in our benefit. This race launches a Pick-4 sequence.
Philadelphia /April 28
Sharp and tuned up after a productive Dover meet, Azucar steps down from a stronger bunch into this conditioned trot. However, it is still a positive step up from his March wins at Dover. So, if we toss out his March 16 Dover loss and handicap him off of two wins before that we have a solid contender and one that will most assuredly escape the eye of the mass audience of players.
BUCKEYE GLAMOUR FEMS
Ohio-bred soph-filly pacers take the Miami Valley stage on April 29, beginning a long and lucrative journey through this state-bred program that offers them all plenty of opportunities to earn big money all the way through the Little Brown Jug meet at Delaware, Ohio in September. The $35,000 James K. Hackett Memorial Fillies Championship is the starting point.
None of the sires representing these fillies are yet to make the average-earnings grid this year but one that might get a good standing and maintain it is World Of Rocknroll. His product in this event is a lightly raced soph that did not race at two and is showing the kind of improvement that could continue through the season. Out utmost interest now, however, is that Clarebear does not get the support of the public because the public won’t take the chance on her improving enough to beat the other eight in this affair.
She cracked maiden status in her first pari-mutual mile and did so at Miami from post 10. In that race she was a 5-2 choice. She qualified after that, won the non-betting test, and went right into the “Hackett” series, supported at 7-2. She was third to the probable favorites in this final. But it wasn’t the kind of loss that made the other two look good. Clarebear’s mile was aggressive, taking the lead with a bold brush, getting passed to sit third, coming back to be second and then holding on for the show.
From post 8 here bettors will dismiss Clarebear, though she will be entirely worth the amount of bravery it takes to back her. It’s always a leap of faith to bank on the improvement of an inexperienced horse (no less one that debuts at three) but in this case we have substantial evidence for success in performances and a great bloodline to back up any argument that this gal could be a major contender nationally this year.
MIAMI VALLEY VARIATIONS
Miami Valley’s Pick 4 on Friday, April 29 includes Races 9-12.
In Race 9 we begin the exotic stream with our eyes on a shipper, Last Minute Cindy, who comes from the Meadows with two mighty miles behind her while worth a few more bucks than the tag in this one. She has had a few weeks off, also, but the local line maker is not impressed, making her 15-1. She leaves from post 4 and it remains to be seen if the public feels the same. Use her in your ticket. Also use High Fashion Mel, who leaves from the second tier (post 10) and may go off with odds higher than his chances (line maker has 3-1).
Leg two, Race 10, Simmy returns off of a tough loss as a public choice and should be the best (9-2, as in the morning line would be wonderful) but he must be partnered with Cincinnati Girl, who comes back to her best recent performances at Miami.
In Race 11, if you want to look beyond Do U Mind, the obvious choice from the second-tier 10 hole, and include a pricey winner, consider Big Crystal. She broke stepping up after a solid win and then was shuffled in a forgiving trip while well supported at 5-1.
The Pick-4 finale, Race 12, could easily pay off generously in a few other ways than just an exotic score. OK Hallelujah will be all out in her second race for the connections that claimed her two back. She stays in the class in which she stepped into, a conditioner, and not being for sale again is a good sign. The crowd will probably go for the “brand-named” Momas Got A Gun but we would like to see the former-soph-stakes mare get a mile in this season after four qualifiers before supporting her strongly.
Saturday, April 30, the glamour-boy-and girl pacers bred in Pennsylvania go into eliminations for the rich Miss Pennsylvania and Pennsylvania Classic at Pocono Downs. The girls go for $20,000 in three splits; the boys battle in a pair of elims for $25,000 each. Here is how we see the divisions in the order of their appearance on that program.
The first Miss Pennsylvania split (Race 3) features the sophomore debut for some in the short field of six, headed by Jimmy Takter’s Pure County, who scored a perfect 10-win season in as many starts. What will she go off here after two scorching Meadowlands qualifiers? There is bound to be no show betting, at least. We will take a shot to beat her. Maybe in her first start it is now or never. Hopes that Pure Country, Darlinonthebeach and Newborn Sassy—each returning for their soph campaign—will take the second-and-third choice places so that we can go with Candy Corn Hanover (morning line 10-1). Unraced at two, it is difficult to tell just how good this Dragon Again product may be. Already unbeaten, she could be worth some money and if she improves she won’t be a bargain any time soon.
In Race 4, the center of the Miss Pennsylvania triptych, the field appears more evenly matched, class-wise. Though I Said Diamonds gets the morning-line call, I Said Please has already gotten off to a sharp soph start and could be the better of the two Well Said-sired gals this season. Skinny Dipper should make the final, racing better than her odds may predict.
Race 5 will attract bettors to Takter’s Ivy League, a gal with nothing but class at two and has already shown talent once at three. She should get better this season but here she is not walk-away winner. The outside contender must be Save The Treasure, who has shown vast improvement from his lightly raced frosh season. She is on the improve and we would like her when she pays well, like she will here.
Each colt-pacing chapter is worth $25,000. In Race 8, chapter one for the boys, the 10-1 morning-line The Catamount Kid, comes into town for the Jamiesons, trainer Carl and driver Jody. This youngster was in top company late last season, took a long break to get to three and trained exceptionally and obviously satisfactory to the Jamiesons because he went right into the high-priced Youthful Series at Woodbine.
In the last elim for the boys, Race 11, we are handed a Rubik’s Cube puzzle. There are so many cases for so many of the eight colts in this chapter that a few will be overlooked in the betting. This doesn’t make ordering the contenders any easier, so your judgment per the wagering will be important. We hope for the overlooked to become Chris Ryder’s JJ Flynn. He is one of Ryder’s two participants and the more likely to get strong support. But the crowd will bet Ron Burke’s entry before they run to Ryder-conditioned products, which could leave JJ Flynn, who we feel will do much better at three than he did at two, with a good offering.
Review our choices and follow the wagering at the prescribed track. These are possible contenders we have judged from reviewing races. The horses’ names are listed beneath the name of the track after the date they will be racing. The race in which they are entered (R and race number) follows. If a + is in front of a horse’s name it means it is appearing on the list for the second (and last) time because it failed to win the first time it appeared. An “ae” signals the horse is entered on the also-eligible list. If a horse is listed twice, refer to the entries on the night of the race since a horse may enter in more than one race. Types of wagering on any of the H2W listed horses are based on your judgment. If you have any questions, email us at TwinSpires.
4/29/16, +Big Pasta R3
4/30/16, Art Genta R8; Yankee Flyer R11
4/30/16, Hornswoggle R2; Son Of A Victory R4; Julep Hanover R7; Just A Professor R9; Bold Arrow R14
4/30/16, Nothing To Wear R1; +Crocodile Rock R2; +Artacus R2; +Mommas Artist R9
4/28/16, +Regal Motion R2; +Lyons Jimmydean R4
4/30/16, +Under Taker R13
4/29/16, +Rules Of The Road R9
4/30/16, +Roll Away Joe R5
4/30/16, +Oneida R2; Art Degree R5; Aris Turn R12
4/30/16, +Truly Kissed R3; +Keystone Rocco R8; +Whos Your Maddy R8
5/1/16, +King Otra R11
4/28/16, Tailgate Hanover R1
4/30/16, +Doowrah Double R4; +Sgt Molly Pitcher R10; +Power And Purpose R11; +Youre Too Funny R12
4/30/16, +Addie Pie R1; Dimes N Dollars R2; +White Shark R4; +Devil Rei R11
4/28/16, +Amped Up Hanover
4/29/16, +Leviathan R7
5/01/16, +Hugh Hefner N R5; Machine Team ae R6
5/1/16, Sea Harrier R9; Live On R11
5/2/16, +Donnie Darko R9; Ameritime R10
5/1/16, +Proud Marjet R1; +Gossip R10
4/28/16, +Riverofroyalty R11
5/01/16, New Miracle R2
4/30/16, +Conkers Conquest R5; +Ringo R9; +Jitterbug Hanover R10
4/30/16, Call Me Bill R7
4/29/16, +Missus Big R6
4/29/16, +Adonis Bay R2; +Al Raza N R8
4/30/16, Keystone Honor R4
Ray Cotolo contributes to each edition