Player Quick Pick: Aqueduct 11/15/2014

Profile Picture: D.S. Williamson

D.S. Williamson

November 15th, 2014

Tomorrow’s feature at Aqueduct is the Grade 3 Red Smith, which should be a battle between turf starts Dynamic Sky and Big Blue Kitten. The best betting race on Big A’s Saturday card might be Race 5, a state-bred allowance that has attracted 10 runners.

Aqueduct Racetrack 5 | 2:16 pm ET

Allowance (57) for 3&Up foaled in NY going 1 mi. (T)

1 – Runaway Posse – 5/1 – Trainer Tim Woolley only wins at 11% with horses going against winners first time after breaking their maiden, but this three-year-old gelding sired by Posse was so impressive in his maiden score that he’s hard to look past in this. The win, at the $70K state-bred maiden level, was at 6 furlongs on the turf, which is even more impressive because Runaway Posse won by 4.5 lengths after being over 3 lengths behind at the top of the stretch. The gelding showed the type of closing kick that should help him in this race against winners. Breeding suggests that 1 mile won’t be an issue and jockey Angel Arroyo has been aboard for all 4 of Runaway Posse’s starts. The key for Arroyo will be to make sure that he doesn’t have to go too wide around the final turn. If Arroyo can do that, Runaway Posse could get his picture taken on Saturday.

10 – Changewilldoyagood – 5/2 – Breaking from post-position 10 won’t help the morning line chalk’s chances to win this, but the Medaglia d’Oro sired three-year-old colt might be so much better than his competition that post-position might not matter. After breaking his maiden at first asking, Changewilldoyagood ran very well over a yielding turf course in a state-bred allowance in October to finish third by 3.75 lengths. It was a respectable run and one that should set up the Joel Rosario ridden colt for a great effort in this allowance on Saturday. Rosario is winning races at 43% at the current Aqueduct meet while trainer John Kimmel is winning at 29%. All systems appear to be go, but the low odds coupled with post 10 makes this one tough to put on top.

5 – Iced Over – 4/1 – Jockey Manuel Franco jumps back aboard this three-year-old colt trained and owned by Michael Lauer that Franco guided to a victory in a $73K maiden state-bred race at Saratoga this past August. Ice Over does have some speed. If Franco wants to use it, he could keep the three-year-old Utopia sired colt within shouting distance of the front-runners. If the pace is too fast, Franco could pull back and hope for a big run. Either way, Iced Over has a big shot in this race and should be taken seriously to win it at what could be good to great odds. He’s a must use in all exotics, that’s for sure.