Player Quick Pick: Aqueduct 11/16/2014

Profile Picture: D.S. Williamson

D.S. Williamson

November 16th, 2014

The feature at Aqueduct on Sunday is the Notebook Stakes for $100,000. Restricted to two-year-olds foaled in New York, the Notebook Stakes should showcase some of the top young sprinters on the East Coast. There also might be an overlay in the field.

Aqueduct Racetrack 8 | 3:43 pm ET

Notebook for 2yo NY breds going 6f

2 – Regal Minister – 8/1 – The favorites look to press behind the speed in this event and Regal Minister, who broke his maiden at first asking at close to 23 to 1 over Belmont’s dirt, could be the speed of the speed. Regal Minister ran the first quarter in that maiden score in 22.2. He held on for a victory even though he had to go an extra furlong; the maiden win was at 6.5 furlongs. With a clean break, jockey Manuel Franco could get an easy lead in this. If someone else wants the lead, he’ll put Regal Minister about a head behind and try and duel the front-runner to the wire. Not only does the race set up for this overlaid two-year-old, but the track does as well. Aqueduct’s main track was favoring speed on Saturday. Gate to wire with the long shot in the feature!

5 – Good Luck Gus – 8/5 – The Rudy Rodriguez trainee certainly has the early foot to keep up with the front runners in the Notebook Stakes on Sunday. The real issue is one of odds since it’s highly likely that Good Luck Gus goes off close to even money, if not less than even money, in this race. He’s got the most experience in the field and he’s already won two races while some of these are going into this stakes event after a maiden score. Rodriguez is winning at 26% at the meet and since this one took down a $252,000 New York bred stakes race at Finger Lakes, he figures to run very good in this $100K stakes race. Because of the positives, it’s hard to knock any horseplayers looking to cash on this guy.

7 – Bullheaded Boy – 3/1 – Good Luck Gus, when finishing second, beat the Todd Pletcher trainee fairly easily in the $250K Sleepy Hollow in both horses’ last race. That race was run at 1 mile, however, and the Notebook is at 6 furlongs meaning that Bullheaded Boy could easily go back to the race right before the Sleepy Hollow where he finished second in a 7 furlong stakes race with an excellent time. Pletcher wins 30% when he removes blinkers. He wins 29% with horses that he enters into two-year-old races and he wins 27% of the sprint races where he’s got a horse running. The betting odds figure to drift on Bullheaded Boy, especially with Good Luck Gus in the race. How often do horseplayers get a chance to bet on a Pletcher horse at overlaid odds?