Player Quick Pick: Aqueduct Racetrack for 11/8/2014

Profile Picture: D.S. Williamson

D.S. Williamson

November 7th, 2014

There is a 0% chance of rain tomorrow in Ozone Park, NY, meaning that the Long Island Handicap at Aqueduct Racetrack shouldn’t see a single scratch. The morning line favorite is Danza Cavallo, who hasn’t raced competitively in over 100 days. Is the three-year-old filly vulnerable on Saturday?

Aqueduct Racetrack 7 | 3:14 pm ET

Grade 3 Long Island Hcp 3&Up F&M going 1-1/2 mi. (T)

6 – Hellenistic – 4/1 – This European invader is trained by the fantastic Dermot Weld, who has always had great success with three-year-old fillies on the grass. Weld’s numbers in the U.S. aren’t a concern since the trainer hasn’t saddled many horses here this year. The fact that Weld is willing to send Hellenistic over state-side for this race should tell horseplayers a lot about her chances to win this. She has 2 wins and 3 third place finishes from 6 lifetime races. Both wins occurred over the turf while all of her other races were run over synthetic surfaces. She gets Lasix for this, was sired by English Channel which means she should be able to run all day, and her jockey, Junior Alvarado, is winning at 29% at the current Aqueduct meet. Hellenistic sure seems like a good horse to key around in the Long Island Handicap on Saturday.

5 – Danza Cavallo – 3/1 – The morning line favorite could go off at much lower odds than the 3/1 because her trainer, Chad Brown, is excellent with these types. Brown wins 31% with shippers to the U.S., 29% with horses running off of a 90+ day layoff, and 30% with horses going first time for him. Jockey Irad Ortiz and Brown are winning 25% of their races together in the last 60 days. They’ve gotten into the money 70% of the time when they pair up in the last 60 days and the ROI is +.59. Like Hellenistic, Danza Cavallo gets Lasix for this. The turf record of 2 wins, 3 second place finishes and 2 thirds out of 9 races is formidable in this field. She’ll be tough, but the likely off odds makes her an underlay.

1 – Aigue Marine –5/1 – The Cristophe Clement trainee could get a great trip after breaking from post-position one in this. Jockey John Velasquez might be able to simply track Viva Rafaela all the way around to the top of the stretch before taking Aigue Marine off of the rail and pushing forward to the finish line. Here class is unquestioned in this field and even though she is now five-years old, she goes into this off of some decent works. Clement gave her a nice vacation after the fifth place finish in the Glen Falls at Saratoga on August 31. If things go her way, she could be the one to upset the favorites, including 7/2 on the morning line Viva Rafaela, at what could be higher odds than what’s listed on the morning line.