Player Quick Pick: Monmouth for 6/28/2014

Profile Picture: Molly Jo Rosen

Molly Jo Rosen

June 28th, 2014

by D.S. Williamson

Saturday’s feature is the $75,000 Lighthouse Stakes for fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles over the main track. Before the feature is an extremely competitive turf race for fillies and mares.

Monmouth Park race 10 | 5:12 pm ET Allowance (40) for 3&up F&M going 1-1/8 mi. (T)

6 – Patinka – This Graham Motion trainee hasn’t been seen since a race in November at Churchill Downs where she got beat by 21 lengths. The race washed off the turf and was held over the main track, though, and Patinka is much better on the turf than off it. In fact, her two races before the November debacle had her lose by only a length in an allowance race after breaking her maiden on the turf. She goes into this off of a solid string of works and there doesn’t appear to be any other speed. Gate-to-wire looks more than possible.

3 – Danalin – The Edward Plesa trainee doesn’t have the early foot that Patinka possesses, but it’s likely that jockey Paco Lopez is going to keep Danalin close enough to the pace to make it interesting in the stretch. Lopez is still winning races at 30% over at Monmouth and Danalin was very close in her last when finishing second over this turf course going 1 1/16 miles. Don’t be surprised if Paco takes this one to the finish line first.

2 – Subpoena – The jockey switch to Eddie Castro might pay dividends for Subpoena’s connections on Saturday. Abel Castellano might have made an error in this one’s last by keeping her so far off the pace. She still ran very well at the end of the race to get up for third by 3 ¾ lengths. If Castro can work out a better trip, possibly only 3 to 4 lengths off of Danalin while Patinka is winging it out on the front end, then Subpoena could provide a minor upset victory.

Monmouth Park race 11 | 5:43 pm ET Lighthouse 3&up F&M going 1-1/16 mi.

1 – South Andros – Brenda’s Way, Winiliscious, Majestic River and Ferenze Feeling might all be gunning for the lead due to Monmouth’s perceived speed bias. The bias usually exists, but it doesn’t often exist to the point where four dueling front runners can hold off all pressers and closers. South Andros should get a nice trip under jockey Xavier Perez since she breaks from post-position 1 and Perez can settle her behind the likely front runners. Perez should get the jump on Julian Pimentel aboard Lady Cohiba, making South Andros the play on top in this competitive event.

6 – Lady Cohiba –  The Cristophe Clement trainee has been a solid money maker with her record of 5-2-3 out of 14 lifetime races. Her connections likely expected more out of her since they purchased her for $240K in 2010, but at this point in her career, she’s a five-year-old mare, picking up paychecks might be the way to go before she becomes a broodmare. She’s got a great shot to pick up a paycheck here since there appears to be plenty of speed to flatter her late kick. She could storm home first in the stretch as the chalk.

7 – Made Up – If the Monmouth speed bias is in effect on Saturday, then Made Up probably has no chance since jockey Trevor McCarthy will have to take back and try and save some ground around the first turn. Made Up isn’t fast enough to keep up with the speed in this. But, she’s got a vicious closing kick and if the speed isn’t holding, and sometimes it doesn’t at Monmouth, then she’ll have a shot for the win and not to just get into the exotics.