Player Quick Pick: Monmouth Park for 8/9/2014

Profile Picture: Molly Jo Rosen

Molly Jo Rosen

August 9th, 2014

by D.S. Williamson

The feature on Saturday at Monmouth is the Grade 3 Monmouth Oaks for fillies featuring Ria Antonia and Size. Before the feature, is Race 10 a solid optional claimer for fillies and mares going 1 mile over dirt.

Monmouth Park 10 | 5:21 pm ET OC (20) 3&up F&M going 1 mi.

4 – Souper Scoop – It’s probably a good idea to forgive Souper Scoop for his 4.5 length loss as the .80 on the dollar favorite in his first against winners. The three-year-old filly sired by Tapit was fighting Paco Lopez on the lead and then steadied and lost all chance for the win. Paco returns and he’s likely to let her run as fast as she wants early. When he did that two races back, she cruised to an 8.25 length maiden score. Play against her for the top spot at your own peril.

3 – Maybe Tonight – This hard-knocking four-year-old filly trained by 19% at the meet winning Ben Perkins Jr. was sensational with Paco on her back in her last when winning a state-bred allowance over the Monmouth dirt. She has a good shot to run down the chalk if the chalk is pressed early and jockey Trevor McCarthy is having a solid Monmouth meet. Her 3-3-2 record out of 10 lifetime races says that always puts in a solid effort.

8– Lexi Morgan – Trainer Todd Pletcher thought enough of this filly to put her into the Grade 2 Demoiselle where she finished fourth to winner Stopchargingmaria. The speed ratings seem light, but Pletcher can get them good in a hurry and this is an optional claimer. Could she win this? She absolutely could, but her odds may offer no value since even though she goes into this off of a layoff, Pletcher wins at 27% with the move and she figures to get the bulk of the class bettors’ money.

Monmouth Park 11 | 5:51 pm ET Monmouth Oaks G3 3&up F going 1-1/16 mi.

5 – Cassatt – This Larry Jones trainee stretches out after winning two sprint races by a combined 8.25 lengths. Jones purchased her for Fox Hill Farms for $300K at the 2012 Keeneland September Sale. It’s obvious that they’ve got some big plans for her. Jones wins at 18% stretching out from sprint to route, 26% with his shippers and 26% with horses that he enters into graded stakes races. She could go gate-to-wire in this, but if she has to rate, she can do that too.

7 – Size –  Jockey Junior Alvarado decides to take the call on this Bill Mott trainee instead of riding at Saratoga on Saturday. If that’s not a sign of confidence, I don’t know what is. Size beat Ria Antonia in the Grade 3 Iowa Oaks in her last, rating 3 lengths behind before taking over in the slop at 13 to 1 odds. She could be coming into her own, but her connections might make her an underlay to win the feature on Saturday.

1 – Ria Antonia – Who knows what her connections were thinking entering her in the Preakness Stakes. She lost that race by 31 lengths. The Grade 3 Iowa Oaks was more like it although she had too much to do as they turned into the stretch and ended up losing to Size by 1.25 lengths. She figures to be closer to the pace in this under jockey Jacob Radosevich and trainer Tom Amoss is one of the best in the country. Her odds will be low again, though, so really consider her true chances before putting win money on her.