Player Quick Pick: Saratoga early Pick 4 for 8/13/2014

Profile Picture: Andrew Champagne

August 13th, 2014

remember to check Scratches & Changes before wagering

Many pretty colors are heading Saratoga's way on the radar. With the late Pick Four (as usual) stacked with turf races, ones that may be decimated by rain-induced scratches, we'll concentrate on Wednesday's early Pick Four, which kicks off in Race #3.

RACE #3: We'll start the sequence with a wide-open sprint for state-bred fillies and mares. It features an 8/5 favorite, but I'm going four-deep in hopes of getting a horse with better odds home.

I'm using #2 Sheriffa (8/5), #4 Readygetsgold (6-1), #5 Daddy's Lil Saint (5-1), and #7 Desert Valentine (5/2). Sheriffa could win, but she isn't my top pick. I prefer Desert Valentine, who ran huge in her debut. She beat a next-out winner that day and may only improve off of that showing.

RACE #4: This is the first of two turf races in the sequence, and I'm playing this as if it will go off the turf. As such, I'm using both main-track-only horses, #3 Amulay (7/2) and #10 Ginny's Grey (5/2).

Simply put, none of the turf horses in this race have displayed much in the way of dirt form. The only one I'd consider using in a dirt race is #4 Tizallheart (6-1), but even she is 0-for-5 on the dirt (though her race in the slop last December at Aqueduct wasn't awful).

If it comes off the turf, the MTO horses look very tough.

RACE #5: The third leg is a maiden claimer for state-bred fillies and mares. I'll go three-deep here, and while I'm using the morning-line favorite, again, I think she's beatable.

My horses here are #1 Mary's in Utopia (8-1), #3 Keep Right (5/2), and

#5 Kleptocrat (7/2). Kleptocrat is my top pick. Her debut at this level was sharp, and while she faltered last out, that was against better horses and she had a pretty adventurous trip. I like her work over a good track on July 16th, and I think she has a chance to run a big one here.

RACE #6: I'm going five-deep in the last leg of this wager, a sprint that will likely come off the turf. It drives the price up, but given the possibility of scratches being fairly high, it's probable that one or more horses I'm using will await a turf race.

I'm using #1 Great Attack (5/2), #7 Power World (15-1), #12 Zee Bros (9/5), #13 Eastwood (2-1), and #14 Piquant (5-1). The MTO horses look very tough, but Great Attack ran second to Ben's Cat in a $100,000 stakes race on dirt three back and Power World ran a bang-up race on the Saratoga main track last year.

Before scratches, this ticket works out to $60 for a 50-cent wager.

Again, though, that value's probably coming down to something a little more reasonable once the dust settles. Good luck!