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Homeracing

Playing a six race show parlay on Belmont Stakes day

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TwinSpires Staff

June 7th, 2018


A fun, but sneaky challenge of a wager...one bump in the road and you are out of the bet!

by Dick Powell

On Belmont Stakes day TwinSpires will have a $5,000 prize to split among players who can withstand the parlay journey, starting with race 7.

Six-race show parlays seem rather easy until you try them. All it takes is one bump in the road and you are out of the bet. The six races on Saturday at Belmont Park, beginning in race seven, have some good sized fields and you are going to be faced with the decision to leave some top horses out since they might be the fifth best in a field of 10.

Race seven is the Woody Stephens Stakes G2 going seven furlongs on the main track for 3yos. I like STRIKE POWER but there is the possibility that he will get cooked in a pace duel and back out of it. #8 KANTHAKA won the Laz Barrera Stakes G3 last time out going this distance at Santa Anita and has trained brilliantly since. Jerry Hollendorfer is the master of shipping coast to coast and this son of JIMMY CREED is three for three going this distance.

The Just a Game Stakes G1 is race eight for fillies and mares going one mile on the Widener turf course. #5 PROCTOR’S LEDGE won a pair of graded stakes races last year then drew poorly in her first two starts of 2018. She won a grade two stakes race at Churchill Downs last out and draws perfectly today with Johnny Velazquez, who is pushing all the right buttons this year on the turf – 27% winners in 2018.

Race nine is the Met Mile G1 and this year’s renewal is a terrific blend of speed and distance horses meeting at a middle distance. #6 ONE LINER is 12/1 on the morning line and he has immense talent. He won his first three career starts then went to the sidelines for a year. After losing his return to the races going seven furlongs at Gulfstream Park, he won at Keeneland going two turns. Last out, he chased IRISH WAR CRY, who was loose on the lead going 1 3/16 miles on a sloppy track and turns back to a mile with Irad Ortiz, Jr. Son of INTO MISCHIEF only has to tote 116 pounds.

The Manhattan Stakes G1 going ten furlongs on the inner turf course attracted a field of 13 and just getting into the money at any price is the way to go. #1 ROBERT BRUCE won six out of six on the turf in Chile including a group one stakes race going this distance. He shipped to America and made his debut a winning one here for Chad Brown in a grade three stakes race when he broke from this post and had to endure a crawling pace. When clear, he kicked on strong with a final furlong under eleven seconds and draws the rail again with Tyler Gaffalione. He’s 3/1 on the morning line but I think he’ll be higher than that.

The Belmont Stakes G1 is race eleven and fifth leg of the parlay. If they didn’t beat #1 JUSTIFY in the Preakness Stakes G1, they won’t beat him today. He has too much cruising speed for this group and has trained brilliantly for this. Baffert will have him fresh and ready for the 1 ½ miles and as long as the Belmont main track doesn’t come up deep and cuppy, he should be able to handle these. Plus, if he finishes in the money, it will be hard for any of the others that get into the top three to pay anything meaningful.

The show parlay concludes in race number 12, a second-level allowance race on the inner turf course going nine furlongs for older horses. Even though #9 BATTLE OF BLENHEIM has to overcome post nine in the short run into the first turn, he looks super tough in here. He runs well with his races spread out and the eight-week layoff is perfect for Chad Brown. Son of top turf sire WAR FRONT (17% turf winners) has won his last two starts and is training steadily up at Saratoga on the Oklahoma training track. Irad Ortiz, Jr. rides back – 37% riding for Brown the past two months.

The show wager

So, the $5 show parlay begging in race number seven is: 8, 5, 6, 1, 1, 9

Put this wager into practice by playing our 6 race show parlay for a chance to split $5,000!

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