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Homeracing

Playing the Keeneland/Woodbine All-Turf Pick 4

Profile Picture: James Scully

October 13th, 2018

Three Grade 1 races are featured in today’s Keeneland/Woodbine All-turf Pick 4 and I will lean heavily on Europeans in the Canadian International (G1) and E.P. Taylor (G1) at Woodbine. Here are my thoughts on the sequence:

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Leg A – Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1), Race 9 at Keeneland

Rushing Fall (#8) appears to lay over her rivals in the QE2. The Chad Brown-trained daughter of More Than Ready has shown an affinity for Keeneland’s turf, posting easy wins in the Jessamine (G3) and Appalachian (G2) the last two meets, and she exits a convincing tally in the August 18 Lake Placid (G2) at the 1 1/8-mile distance. Rushing Fall has been willing to settle behind slow paces in previous starts but in her lone setback, the Edgewood (G3), she was rank during the early stages and wound up finishing a neck second. She’ll be tough to beat.

I give Fatale Bere (#3) and Mission Impassible (#5) the best chance if the likely odds-on favorite falters.

Leg B – Canadian International (G1), Race 9 at Woodbine

Thundering Blue (#2) finished a half-length back of runner-up Poet’s Word when third in the Juddmonte International (G1) two back. The winner, Roaring Lion, has captured three consecutive Group 1s and is under consideration for the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1). Poet’s Word remains the only horse to beat Cracksman this season when winning Prince of Wales’s (G1) at Royal Ascot.

With a two-length score in a Group 3 Swedish event last out, Thundering Blue showed his ability to travel and the fit English-based gelding wheels back on a 20-day rest here for David Menuisier. Regular rider Fran Berry will be along and Thundering Blue will take some beating.

I’ll also use #10 Desert Encounter, an English Group 3-winning gelding who enters on the upswing. The six-year-old should offer good value (6-1 m/l) and trainer David Simcock excels at shipping to Woodbine, winning a trio of Grade 1 events, including the Northern Dancer, with foreign invaders in 2014. Desert Encounter has also kept good company, recording a third to Poet’s Word earlier this season, and his last two efforts have been sharp.

Leg C – Allowance, Race 10 at Keeneland

An overflow field of 14, including a pair of also-eligibles, was entered for the non-winners of three other than allowance and Last Promise Kept (#13) must be used if she draws into the race.

Dutch Parrot (#9) has been competing in dirt stakes and switches back to turf in a speed-laden field. The four-year-old offered a sneaky late run behind a glacial pace in a turf allowance in late June and posted a nice win on the main track two back; I will play her straight at long odds (20-1 m/l) with Ricardo Santana Jr. Mo Knows (#2) and You Cheated (#6) also appear capable of capitalizing upon an expected hot/contested pace.

Youngest Daughter (#1), Dynatail (#3) and Now Power (#5) will also be used in the Pick 4.

Leg D – E.P. Taylor (G1), Race 10 at Woodbine

Sheikha Reika (#4) has always been a promising type for Roger Varian and the French-bred sophomore daughter of Shamardal thrived when stretching out to today’s 1 1/4-mile distance last time, racing prominently from the start before accelerating to score going away by 4 1/2 lengths in a September 19 listed event in England. That effort netted an outstanding 122 BRIS Class rating, a number topped only by Golden Legend, and I like Sheikha Reika’s improving form.

Golden Legend (#5) registered a 123 Class rating posting a one-length victory in the September 17 La Coupe de Maisons-Laffitte (G3) and the multiple Group 3 heroine competed against Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1) winner Wuheida earlier this season. The French-bred four-year-old filly appears capable of another stout closing kick in this spot with Alexis Badel.

Keeneland/Woodbine All-Turf Pick 4 Tickets

I will try to turn a profit with a budget under $50.

Rushing Fall will be a popular single and I can’t argue with the logic. I’m playing Europeans in the Woodbine races and will spread seven-deep in the Keeneland allowance on the first ticket:

50-cent Pick 4: 8 with 2,10 with 1,2,3,5,6,9,13 with 4,5 ($14)

Utilizing a narrower stance in the Keeneland allowance, here is a $1 ticket with Rushing Fall singled:

$1 Pick 4: 8 with 2,10 with 2,6,9,13 with 4,5 ($16)

An upset in the opener would be a separator and here is my saver ticket:

50-cent Pick 4: 3,5 with 2,10 with 2,6,9,13 with 4,5 ($16)

Good luck!

Play the Keeneland/Woodbine All-Turf Pick 4 at TwinSpires.com, select “Keeneland Woodbine P4” from the track menu

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