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Homeracing

Playing the Pick 4 that ends with the Kentucky Derby

Profile Picture: John Mucciolo

May 4th, 2022

An enticing sequence of graded stakes make up a fascinating Pick 4 opportunity on Saturday's Churchill Downs slate. Post time for the first leg of the Pick 4 is 3:40 p.m. ET.

Race 9: American Turf S. (G2)

My top pick is #2 Main Event (5-1), but I can’t single the colt in a deep race. #6 Portfolio Company (9-2), Transylvania S. (G3) star #7 Sy Dog (7-2), and Shug McGaughey’s #1 Smokin’ T (15-1) also makes the ticket in the opening leg.

Race 10: Churchill Downs S. (G1)

This ultra-competitive dash has quality from top to bottom in a tough handicapping assignment. #3 Jackie’s Warrior (5-2) will be a single on many tickets, and deservedly so, as he is all class and likely the controlling speed. Champion colt is 2-for-2 locally and will be quite difficult to pass if he brings his best race to the table.

But defending Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1) winner #1 Aloha West (7-2) is no slouch, nor is Carter H. (G1) second #5 Reinvestment Risk (7-2) or two-time Grade 1 star #7 Mind Control (5-1). And San Carlos S. (G2) romper #8 Cezanne (4-1) has a world of ability and a great post draw, too. I will go five-deep.

Race 11: Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic S. (G1)

I like #1 Ivar (4-1) a lot in this spot for trainer Paulo Lobo. Classy son of Agnes Gold seems poised to fire a big shot in his 2022 debut while breaking from the rail. He will be a win bet for me.

I don’t feel that #4 Tribhuvan (5-1) is a "rabbit" for his stablemates in the cast, and his early speed scares me to be honest. Grade 1 victor is probably best at 1 1/4 miles, but he could run this field off of their feet while coming in fresh. Manny Franco will ride the pacesetter.

Race 12: Kentucky Derby (G1)

The Run for the Roses concludes the sequence, and I will use a trio of runners in the wager. #3 Epicenter (7-2), #5 Smile Happy (20-1), and #6 Messier (8-1), will conclude the play.

Wager

  • 50-cent Pick 4: 1,2,6,7 with 1,3,5,7,8 with 1,4 with 3,5,6 ($60)

Good Luck!

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