Prairie Meadows Track Update for June 28, 2021

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June 28th, 2021

We're two months into Prairie Meadows, and this is the biggest weekend of the meet. Friday's card features the Iowa Oaks (G3), Iowa Derby, and Cornhusker H. (G3); Saturday's program features the Saylorville S., Iowa Sprint, and Iowa Distaff.

Let's get to know the top locals!


Jockey Alex Birzer, last year's leading rider, is carrying that momentum. His 53 wins (53-for-194, 27%) put him 18 clear of second-place Elvin Gonzalez (36-for-154, 23%) going into the meet's biggest week. Watch Birzer in route races in particular. Though his win percentage is the same 27% as usual (16-for-59), he's riding a few more prices and has a slight positive ROI (+3%) in those two-turn races.

A niche angle to watch? If a horse Shane Laviolette is riding takes money, take notice. Overall he is a credible 14-for-80 on the meet (18%). He isn't often on the chalk; only nine of his horses so far this meet have gone favored. But, six of those favorites have won, good for a +28% flat bet ROI across Laviolette's nine chalks.


The trainer's race at Prairie Meadows is tight. Jon Arnett's 24 wins (24-for-84, 29%) give him a narrow lead, but Lynn Chleborad (21-for-87, 24%) is right behind. Both Arnett (+17%) and Chleborad (+8%) offer positive flat-bet ROIs so far this meet, too. Arnett has been particularly strong in sprint races (16-for-54, +28% ROI). In two-turn races both Arnett and Chleborad lead with eight; Chleborad appeals more to bettors with a higher win percentage (31% to Arnett's 27%) and route race ROI (+65% to Arnett's -2%).

Even though Karl Broberg is the big name at Prairie (and many other places) first off the claim, two other barns not only have more first-off-the-claim wins than he does but have also brought more home for bettors. Broberg is 2-for-8 (25%) with a -41% ROI first off the claim. But, Greg Tracy is 4-for-6 (67%) with a +60% ROI with shiny new claims, and Federico Villafranco is 3-for-5 (60%) with a +240% ROI.

At a Glance

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