Presque Isle Downs Selections and Analysis for Sept. 27

September 26th, 2022

Dick Powell offers his picks and analysis for the Tuesday racing card at Presque Isle Downs.

Race One:

1st: #3 DON’T DARE ME – was a game second three starts back in his PID debut going this distance in fast time. He moved up off the claim next out and weakened late then dropped back down and rallied for third.

2nd: #4 DETANGLER – showed decent speed two starts back going this distance as the 7-5 favorite, then opened up a big lead before tiring when stretched out to two turns. Ed Rojas wins 22% with his overall synthetic-track starters.

3rd: #6 CATHMOR – horse for the course beat this level two starts in a row then rallied for second last out against open $5K claimers.

Race Two:

1st: #3 SONNET – daughter of English Channel tries Tapeta for the first time while dropping way down in class. She should love the distance here for Tim Hamm, who wins 19% first time against claiming company and 23% when he rides Ron Allen, Jr.  

2nd: #2 TALES OF MAKENNA – ran well on the turf going two turns at Saratoga against much better company and ships here while dropping way down. Linda Rice wins 31% with this move and 19% second start off the layoff. Pablo Morales picks up the mount.

3rd: #6 HALF BIRTHDAY – was a decent third last out in her Tapeta debut against this conditioned claiming level.

Race Three:

1st: #4 AULT – horse for the course raced evenly from post 10 two starts back, then just missed from a better post when he showed better gate speed. Shelly Radosevich wins 18% with her overall claimers and 16% with her synthetic-track starters.

2nd: #5 ADIOS BOBBY – has just killed it here in his last four starts, winning the last three. As long as he doesn’t get claimed, he’ll keep meeting these and can use his gate speed to advantage. Erin Walker does great with horses that have strong pace.

3rd: #3 MY FRIEND FRANK – won two in a row on the turf at Penn National, then came back and ran second there last out.

Race Four:

1st: #6 COLONEL POPPY – son of the speedy Speightster has made all three of his career starts here. He was beaten at 17-10 two starts back then was an even third last out. Matt Kintz wins 22% with his maiden special weight starters.

2nd: #8 WHISKEYMAC – rushed up into contention when he broke a step slow and faded late in his well-bet career debut. Graham Motion wins 17% with his second-time starters and with his overall synthetic-track starters.

3rd: #7 WILLIE WANDO – has had four chances to graduate and draws better where he can stalk the pace.

Race Five:

1st: #6 A WISH FOR TRISH – broke her maiden to start the season back in April on the dirt at Finger Lakes, then was soundly beaten in her next four starts. She shipped here last out and almost went gate to wire and will be tough if she breaks alertly.

2nd: #2 MAMA LONGLEGS – broke her maiden in her 32nd try here when she went gate to wire. That was the lowest class level she ever faced and she meets low-level company here for Maria Bowersock, who wins 17% first start after a maiden win.

3rd: #1 CANCAN SAREE – just missed going six furlongs two starts back then raced evenly last out.

Race Six:

1st: #7 WATCHOUTFORWEAVER – didn’t show much in his first three career starts, then almost went gate to wire going a mile here last out at 23-1 odds. Cassondra Weaver wins 25% with her overall synthetic-track starters and 15% against this maiden level.  

2nd: #8 DR. HYDE – showed little in his first two career starts but then woke up at 21-1 last out when he was a game third behind the top choice. Keith Dickey wins 19% with his synthetic-track starters and his last 91 show a flat-bet profit.

3rd: #5 FURIOUSLY – was an even fourth in his career debut going this distance on the turf for Graham Motion.

Race Seven:

1st: #5 AEGONTHECONQUEROR – was a game second two starts back here, then returned and went gate to wire against state-bred maidens. He draws perfectly to stalk or set the pace going into the turn and picks up Alexis Valdes.  

2nd: #7 COMMODORE BARRY – began the year with two poor turf sprints at Colonial Downs, then came here and was a good third. He beat open company $25K claimers last out in fast time for Tom Cooper, who wins 23% first start after a win.

3rd: #6 SHOOT YOUR CUFFS – has been stuck at this state-bred allowance level all year so I can’t put him any higher.

Race Eight:

1st: #3 SAMURAI ZIP – one of the ultimate horse for the course here goes for win number 22 at the track. He had been racing against two classes better before dropping down to this level and missing by a neck. The 12-year-old son of First Samurai draws well today.

2nd: #2 NOTACATBUTACARD – beat this class level three starts back, then raced evenly in fast time when moved up. He missed by three lengths last out as the 5-2 lukewarm favorite for Mark Hoffman, who wins 21% first start after being beaten as the favorite.

3rd: #1 STRETCH RUNNER – has won four of nine starts here and should improve second start off the layoff.