Price horse brewing in El Camino Real Derby for Kentucky Derby Dream Bet

Profile Picture: Vance Hanson

February 17th, 2017

The highest payout in the four Kentucky Derby (G1) preps covered by the $25,000 Kentucky Derby Dream Bet thus far has been $10.60, while the other three were won by favorites or near-favorites.

If by chance you consistently bet against the chalk and still have not qualified for the Final Round of the Derby Dream Bet, there are two opportunities this holiday weekend. Those that have been successful can pad their earnings for an opportunity to win Qualifying Round Prizes. More information on the contest and prizes can be found here.

Saturday's $200,000 El Camino Real Derby (G3) has a solid morning line favorite in Sheer Flattery (7-5), with Ann Arbor Eddie (2-1) a strong second choice. They're certainly capable of keeping the winning run of well-backed horses alive based on their Southern California form, and both are trained by men with great experience winning this race. Jerry Hollendorfer has won the El Camino Real a record six times, while Doug O'Neill trained last year's victor Frank Conversation.

How these two will cope with running over Golden Gate Fields' Tapeta surface for the first time is anyone's guess. I'll stand against both at significantly short prices. Another trying Tapeta for the first time is Tribal Storm (#4, 8-1), who seemingly has room for further improvement following a third-place finish to Ann Arbor Eddie in the Cal Cup Derby.

Tribal Storm broke last after an early bump yet still managed to turn on the afterburners to win his debut going away in a five-furlong maiden last October on Golden Gate's turf course, often a sign of potential compatibility with synthetic surfaces. He followed up with a narrow allowance win in a Del Mar sprint, and then was off two months before reappearing in the Cal Cup Derby. In tight around the far turn, Tribal Storm lost ground to loose-on-the-lead California Diamond and Ann Arbor Eddie, yet plugged along for show honors.

By Papa Clem, a graded stakes winner on both dirt and synthetic, Tribal Storm is locally based and could prove stronger second off the bench. He's sure to be overshadowed in the wagering not only by the above mentioned, but also Colonel Samsen and More Power to Him, both of whom are fairly well exposed at this point.