Pro Player Quick Pick - Monmouth - 9/13/2014

D.S. Williamson

September 12th, 2014

A 67% chance of rain hitting Oceanport, NJ tomorrow means that we probably want to shun the turf races on Monmouth’s Saturday card. With sunshine, Race 7 could have been the unveiling of another Christophe Clement turf star in War Correspondent, but there is no doubt that Clement will scratch one of his latest imports if the rains arrive. That leads us to Race 8 where very few scratches are expected rain or shine.

Monmouth Park 8 | 4:28 pm ET

AOC (20) 3&Up F&M going 6f

2 – Yes I’m Sweet – 4/1 – Sure, the form isn’t great, but there are a number of things to like about this four-year-old filly sired by Yes It’s True. Trainer Edward Plesa Jr. is winning races at 22% at the meet. He’s trained this filly to over $112,500 in earnings and one of her best races actually occurred on the slop. So, the mud won’t hurt her chances at all. Paco Lopez, who has maintained a 30% win rate at Monmouth even though he’s been aboard close to 400 horses, remains aboard. And, finally, the morning line odds are much higher than one would expect them to be. On the negative side, she looked terrible in her last two races. The last, though, was on the turf at 5 furlongs and she bobbled at the break, which pretty much ended any chance she had for the win.

8 – Scripture ‘n Verse – 3/1 – Trainer Jorge Navarro has excellent numbers that apply to the conditions of this race. He wins 26% with his allowance runners. He wins 32% with horses that he enters in a sprint and 31% with his dirt starters. The percentages are incredible considering that Navarro has saddled 850 dirt starters and 530 sprint starters. Scripture 'n Verse appears to be in excellent form having finished third in an OC $20K event last time out and winning by 8 lengths two starts back in a straight $20K claimer. The jockey switch to Ramon Moya won’t hurt the Saint Anddan three-year-old filly’s chances at all. Moya can either be extremely aggressive early or he could press from 2 to 3 lengths off. It just depends on what happens after they break from the gate.

6 – Rosie My Way – 9/2– This four-year-old filly has already raced 29 times during her career compiling a record of 5 wins, 2 second, and 8 third place finishes. She has a decent 1-1-2 record on the slop and has finished third 3 times in her last 4 races. What it means is that she’s a must use on all exotic tickets even though her chances of winning probably aren’t as good as Scripture ‘n Verse’s and Yes I’m Sweet’s. One thing to note about Rosie My Way is that her record at Monmouth, a first and second out of 2 lifetime races, is very good. Another thing to note is that she was running at Saratoga and Belmont against what many might consider better equines. She could be very tough in this spot and deserves some win consideration, but she faces other speed. So, horseplayers will need to consider the odds before pushing the win bet confirmation button on this horse.