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Homeracing

Prospects For Profits Surface In Dayton Pick 4 And Four Other Tracks

Profile Picture: Frank Cotolo

December 17th, 2015

This, our main blog, presents personally designated feature races for your perusal. As was last week, our features are overnight events we feel strongly about, with suggested contenders for all wagering formats.

We are including, once again, Pick-4 contenders for the exotic at Dayton Raceway on Thursday, Dec. 17, along with races from the Meadowlands, Northfield, the Meadows and Pompano on Friday and Saturday.

We also continue with our popular H2W (horses-to-watch list) in its usual format, by racetrack and dates. Because of the holiday weeks ahead, however, some tracks have closed for the year. Extended H2W coverage will continue in 2016.

Watch for our Players Horse of the Year and 2015 Review blog, which will be posted separate from that week’s main blog, going on line just before midnight, Eastern Time, Dec. 31. Along with the Players Horse of the Year we will list all of the blog’s winners from the season, as presented by us as features and in the H2W.

F E A T U R E S ~ F E A T U R E S ~ F E A T U R E S

Dayton/Pick 4/Races 6—9
Thursday, Dec. 17

 Dayton’s late Pick 4 sequence this time around appears less competitive than last week but should still offer some great exotic opportunities within each leg.

The premier leg of the sequence is a $5,000 Claiming event. At the rail, the probable favorite Rolling Thunder will be tough to beat. He has raced sharply at this level but drew posts 6, 7, 8, or 9 at some points in his last five starts. However, off the right trip, Become Legendary could topple the favorite. He races better when he’s closer to the leader versus his last two starts, where he tried to close.

Trotters compete in the following race, gathering a full field for a non-winners of $2,750 in the last four starts event. Marquesas returns to this company after being claimed by the Brewer brothers. He has been fairly competitive at multiple class levels, most notably against $10,000 optional claimers, where he finished third off a parked mile from post 9. Mischievous Jesse could also be a factor but at a long price. He broke when trying to brush by his rivals around the final turn against this group but has raced well against similar stock in the past.

Conditioned claimers go in the penultimate leg, and Turtle Gone Wild should be a major contender. He makes his third start off a scratch and continues to race well at this level. Yet, he has struggled to win, flaunting many second- and third-place finishes on his resume. He draws well for this event and should be able to orchestrate a decent trip.

Ally-con is the biggest factor in the final leg. If he’s not sent off as the favorite, he’ll be a great overlay but the only reason he wouldn’t be would be because of his outside draw. At this level he left for a position in the middle of the pack, was shuffled to last and circled around the rest of the field to claim second as the favorite. If he somehow cannot overcome his draw then Sand Fortune will likely come in at a fair price. He faltered after sweeping to the lead into the backstretch, finishing third. Aggressive moves like that brush practically dismiss the fact that he broke two starts back and say that this gelding could probably have something left in the stretch if he is not doing the work.

F E A T U R E S ~ F E A T U R E S ~ F E A T U R E S

Meadows/Race 11
Friday, Dec. 18

You may be able to start off that Pick 5 with a double-digit winner in this conditioned trot if our suggested contender lives up to prospects. Mister Bs Way is 8-1 on the ML and we can only hope that becomes reality. He steps up after almost winning a few pegs down and has every reason to flex his muscles here, where class is not a great argument for a horse stepping down. Mister Bs Way has some back class but so do others that may get more fan attraction. The public may hammer You Rock My World, coming from two wins at the Meadowlands. He is just the kind of horse we like to bet against and Mister Bs Way gives us that opportunity.

Meadowlands/Race 9
Friday, Dec. 18

Because of his outside post, his driver and stepping up (even though after a win), Purity could be a bargain in this mile. She had to step down to win her Dec. 11 race but it was not for lack of recent form. She was in this class twice before the drop and worked very hard from outside posts to get the last pieces of the purse. We care to imagine a few other droppers in the field will get more action than Purity, from post 9.

Northfield/Race 7
Friday, Dec. 18

The morning-line (ML) choice, Hopeful Trust, is getting more credit than deserved off of a step-up, perfect-trip win with the track’s hot driver. This affords some better odds for contenders in the field. The second ML choice, Ricky O Bay, is the horse that allowed Hopeful Trust to benefit from the catbird seat. But the contender most likely to be ignored may be Ha Jung. Her past pair at Northfield, in this company, should be dismissed. Her 9-hole attempt last out, it should be noted, put her up at 5-2; she was crowded and stifled more than once in the failure. From post 7 the time before that she got off to such a slow start she was unable to make up ground. Up until those two she has excuses for losing. She won on her first trip here from Michigan and is a four-turn veteran that shouldbe a great price against the obvious few mentioned.

F E A T U R E S ~ F E A T U R E S ~ F E A T U R E S

Meadowlands/Race 6
Saturday, Dec. 19

Look no further for a contender offering a good price in this conditioned pace. Trainer Rober Breshahan, Jr. has placed Benjaminbanneker perfectly here and the 8 hole should not be the difference in a good trip from a bad one. The gelding’s recent win at this level paid at 7-2 but here he should pay more for winning. This is a competitive veteran that has the ability to leave or shake loose from the pack. The latter may be the move this time, as Pembroke Scorpio, who is bound to get major support, will be flying early from post 4, and he could get some pressure from a few in here, setting it up for a strong stretch win.

Pompano/Race 4
Saturday, Dec. 19

Horses are still shipping south for the winter, making Pompano their lair, so we find more than a few horses coming from tracks where the class structures are as different as the weather. The crowd will gravitate to the obvious step-down entries, like Guilford in this race, but may not be so invigorated by Whichwayrightrleft. This one broke in his first Pompano mile but deserves another chance, especially at a great price and even from post 9. He burned out first over at Philadelphia in November and made some money before that there against much better than these.

Pompano/Race 7
Saturday, Dec. 19

Dr Ds Jodine debuts on the Florida surface from successful sophomore action at Hoosier. His step-up status is suspect, considering our assessment of the class differences but he deserves to take on other types. Few of these horses revel in winning races, giving “Jodine” an edge hopefully not sensationalized by the public. Jodine likes to come from behind but this is not Hoosier, so we may see noticeable urging at the start to find a closer spot early or to steal it with commanding fractions.

H2W Legend

Review our choices and follow the wagering at the prescribed track. These are possible contenders we have judged from reviewing races. The horses’ names are listed beneath the name of the track after the date they will be racing. The race in which they are entered (R and race number) follows. If a + is in front of a horse’s name it means it is appearing on the list for the second (and last) time because it failed to win the first time it appeared. An “ae” signals the horse is entered on the also-eligible list. If a horse is listed twice, refer to the entries on the night of the race since a horse may enter in more than one race. Types of wagering on any of the H2W listed horses are based on your judgment. If you have any questions, email us at TwinSpires.

H2W LIST

Cal Expo
12/19/15, Mr Solongbyebye R2; Moon Is On Fire R13
12/20/15, +Avila Beach R11; Rhis Western Star R11

Charlottestown
12/19/15, Mattadors Rose R1; +Caspiana R2; Teddys Place R4; +Timely Finesse R4Richlyn Yogi R5; Ufit R7; Million Teen R8

Dayton
12/17/15, +Big Wheel R7; +ER Myron R11; +Odds On Serpens R12
12/19/15, Brow Down R1

Dover
12/17/15, +Totally Kissed R5

Flamboro
12/16/15, +Rocket Art R6
12/19/15, +Lis Deo R6

Fraser
12/18/15, +Krystal Pistol R2; +Keyed Entry R4
12/20/15, +Blurricane R7; +Ronny Woo Woo R8

Meadows
12/21/15, +Firm It Up R7; +Chazmatazz R12; +J Matt R14

Meadowlands
12/18/15, +Spirit Of Desire R5; Not Before Eight R7
12/19/15, +Up Up And Out R1

Monticello
12/17/15, Caviar Court R4; Practiced Perfect R6; Lumiere R9; Wizard Of Art R11

Northlands
12/18/15, +Rodeo Joe R8
12/19/15, Counterstrike R1

Pompano
12/19/15, Zeitgeist R2
12/20/15, +Red Pine R2; Zoraze R5; Lifeimitatesart R6

Woodbine
12/18/15, +Pinky Tuscadero R5
12/19/15, +Jack Reacher R1; +Forever Just R2; Kadabrasnewrecruit R8; +Naturescape R9; +Shock N Rock R11; +Big City Jewel R11
 

Ray Cotolo contributes to each edition

 

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