Girl's Night Out-Jackie vs Kelly vs Queen

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D.S. Williamson

September 27th, 2014

By D.S. Williamson

There are two days left at the Monmouth meet, Saturday and Sunday. Saturday’s feature is the Jersey Juvenile Stakes, which is Race 9 on the card, but the best race in which to bet might be Race 8, a $20,000 optional claimer for fillies and mares over the turf.

Monmouth Park 8 | 4:22 pm ET

OC (20) 3&Up F&M going 1-1/16 mi. (T)

1 – Juke Box Jackie – 4/1 – The morning line odds are more than fair on this 6 out of 19 lifetime winner sired by Master Command and out of a Smarty Jones mare. Juke Box Jackie has the ability to run over any surface, but she’s particularly effective going long over the turf. In 5 turf races, she’s won 3 of them with a second place finish in another. Jockey Edwin Gonzalez has been aboard for her last four and new trainer Peter Kazamias decides to keep Gonzalez for the run in this. Why not? The last two times that the jockey has been aboard Juke Box Jackie on the turf, he’s guided her to two victories. She breaks out of the one hole, which means that Gonzalez will want to get her in decent position early. He’ll also need to time the run to the wire correctly or else he might get shut out of any openings at the top of the stretch. Kazamias is a decent 14% first after the claim, 27% with his allowance runners, and 25% with horses that won their last race. All systems appear in order for a win.

7 – Love That Kelly – 5/2 – Any time trainer Hugh McMahon makes a claim, horseplayers had better pay attention. McMahon isn’t as well-known as some other trainers at Monmouth, but he’s winning at 22%. Not only that, but he probably won’t have to do much with this daughter of Domestic Dispute who has run off 3 straight victories and 4 out of her last 5. She might have a pace advantage in this as well since only Juke Box Jackie appears capable of pushing Love That Kelly early. Although jockey Nik Juarez is only winning at 9% on the year, he’s capable aboard these on the lead turf types. Not only that, but Juarez and McMahon have a +0.29 ROI when they’ve joined forces at this meet. McMahon also put in a stunning bullet 4 furlong work into Love That Kelly on September 19. The chalk is formidable in the eighth at Monmouth on Saturday.

2 – Rythmn Queen – 6/1 – She doesn’t appear to be in great form, but there’s a chance that she could turn it around in this. She’s won 4 out of 10 over the turf, which gives her a leg up in this over much of her competition. She was also running at Saratoga. Monmouth is a great track, but the quality of racing doesn’t compare to The Spa. No track does, so she has to be given a mulligan for the two Saratoga debacles. Horseplayers should also notice that those two races at The Spa were over the slop, a surface that she doesn’t care for. If you throw out those two races, this is sort of a move down from the $40K level. Trainer Bruce Brown is very good with turf horses and jockey Gabriel Saez is one of the best at Monmouth. She’s an overlay at 6/1.