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Homeracing

Quintet Of Simpson Stakes For Frosh Fillies Storm Philly With Last-Chances For Fame In October

Profile Picture: Frank Cotolo

September 26th, 2018

 

Here are the races for week seven of the 2018 Breeders Crown Countdown (BCC), the exclusive blog that coordinates with our weekly harness blog at TwinSpires.com and the Hambletonian Society to find great wagering opportunities for "Crown" eligible horses (noted in all texts with an “e” next to their names) from all 12 divisions as they race their ways to the finals. For the divisions’ best of the week, check the BCC companion blog, BCC Top Five Lists, generated by current winners and losers most likely to make it to the elims at Pocono this season.

This week’s divisions in play are two-year-old fillies, pacers and trotters. Freshmen are the largest divisions of eligible Crown performers and the late-September events in which they race make them the most volatile for a Crown October among two-year-olds. So, we head for Thursday afternoon, Sept. 27 at Philly, where there are five Grand Circuit Simpson Stakes, each worth $35,000-plus--$ 42,000-plus and a lot more for an October Crown appearance.


TROT SPOTTING

There are three Simpson miles for the frosh-filly trotters and among the trio are nine horses with the Crown on the line. Ten non-eligible fillies among the rest have their own agenda—cash sans Crown—and will have no mercy on those that crave a Pocono visit.

The first filly-trot is Race 7. Two eligible fillies take part in the small field. Since the favorite is likely to be Navarone Hanover, one of three off the Crown list, the edge should go to Big Weezy (e), at least among those two. The other eligible, Miss Trixton (e) is still a maiden after eight tries.

This could be a good race to go against the Crown prospects if  you consider Shes A Bronxbomber. Two wins for five starts, the daughter of Donato Hanover should improve as she matures and her morning line (ML) of 8-1 could be close to the odds in which she is given when leaving the gate. We have found that this year’s crop from Donato Hanover has been slow to capture the attention of bettors, which was sad for a few that lived up to the sire’s reputation. We will tag her to win for the price and purpose.

Race 9 presents the second field of filly trotters, with another duo of Crown-aimed gals against four others. The two eligibles, Antonia (e) and American Kronos (e) are hard to deny as the best here. However, there is a single product of Muscle Hill that warrants attention. Sky Is Mine is trained by Noel Daley and sports a ML of 6-1, which is fair, but it could be even higher when the money starts filling through the machines. The ML is soft on a few factors, including more play on Meadowbranch Vicki, due to the popularity of the pilot, and lower odds on American Kronos due to Julie Miller’s barn of blazing trotters. Sky Is Mine should be in the mix and even if “Kronos” beats her, the Daley student should inflate an exacta worth of cashing in a six-horse field.

Race 13, the curtain call split for the trotters, sends seven to the gate, with five eligible fillies. Having stamped the Miller barn “lethal” in the trotting categories, the ML for Cardinale (e) is absurd at 20-1. This Cantab Hall product (the only one in the field) has won three of nine and has earned well. So is it a misprint? There is no way not to consider this filly as one of the top three contenders, so if the ML is even close to correct, we have a hell of a deal, especially during one of Miller’s more productive years.


PACING PROFITS

Only two pacing Simpson Stakes are on tap Sept. 27; the first goes as Race 3. There are six filly flyers with two on the Crown trail. Renaissance Lady K (e) should pick up co-favorite status, while Rock N Mcroll (e) is the obvious first choice among the obvious.

However, the ML speaks highly of Philly Hanover, a Captaintreacherous gal that is one win for nine starts but sports the top earning record. Of the three, the betting contender could become Renaissance Lady K and that would be fine with us, as the others appear to be ready to relax the rest of their freshman season.

Race 11 is the other filly pace, with another six at the gate. The eligible trio divides the field for Crown interests. Of the October three, A Beach Cowgirl (e) stands out for us. She has won two for eight and has been on the board four for eight but the crowd probably will not fancy the low-profile driver and trainer, so the 4-1 ML is likely to become a much higher offering.


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Follow major 2018 BC hopefuls on their journey to the Breeders Crown at Pocono Downs at this Breeders Crown Countdown blog and the TwinSpires harness blog weekly, along with further information on the Hambletonian Society web site.
 

 

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