Race And Wager Selection Helps New Year Start Big

Profile Picture: Ed DeRosa

Ed DeRosa

February 3rd, 2016

One month is an extremely small sample size, but it’s hard not to be excited about my January wagering performance in the wake of my New Year’s Wagering Revolution post that kicked off 2016.

My ROI for all horse racing wagers in January 2016 is +35.53% on record handle for January since I began keeping detailed notes in 2010. My 12-month rolling ROI is a respectable -4.23%, giving me hope that I can record my first-ever 12-month positive ROI sometime this year.

Pride before the fall and all that, so I’ve used the first part of February to take a deep breath and take stock of what went right and what can just be attributable to variance

Obviously, a +35.53% ROI is not sustainable, but the good decisions I made to get me there are. Full disclosure: If not for that DQ in the last race on Saturday at Gulfstream, my ROI for the month would have been in the 19%-20% range. Still good but also emblematic of what variance and a small sample size can do to results.

Anyway, the biggest change this month is that I passed on a lot more races—even whole cards if I wasn’t comfortable. Used to be that if I took the time to handicap the card then I was in action period end of story. As part of my more thoughtful approach to 2016 I resolved for that not to be the case. I love multi-race wagers, and playing them is my goal when handicapping any card, but no longer will action supersede ROI.

On the aforementioned Saturday, I handicapped the late Pick 4 at Aqueduct, Gulfstream, Oaklawn, and Santa Anita Park, and mapped out potential plays at all four tracks. Ultimately, I only played Gulfstream and Santa Anita. Both hit profitably while the plays at the other two tracks would have lost.

Again, this is more variance than it is the Rosetta stone of wagering success, but it is nice to start off the year with a confidence booster—especially when employing some new tactics.

Below is my ROI for the month as well as for the previous “X” months. I’ve had rolling six-month periods that were profitable, but as noted above, no 12-month periods since keeping track beginning January 2010 (my two biggest scores were in November 2007 and January 2009).

As someone who is paid to give analysis of horse races and educate people on how to bet, it’s important to me to be transparent about my wagering performance. I also believe accountability improves performance.