Race flows should help favorites as $25K Kentucky Dream Bet Final Round begins
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Saturday's $1 million Florida Derby (G1) and $1 million TwinSpires.com Louisiana Derby (G2) are similar in one handicapping respect: there appears to be plenty of speed on paper to help the likely favorites.
While not a huge believer in Fountain of Youth (G2) winner Gunnevera (#11, 9-5), he's talented enough to beat the field assembled against him at Gulfstream, and should be aided by a pace likely to involve State of Honor and Three Rules, if not others. I'm not a fan of his outside post at 1 1/8 miles, but others would seemingly have to take a big step forward to beat him if he's anywhere near his best.
In the Louisiana Derby, owner Brad Grady and trainer Joe Sharp were clever enough to enter a rabbit, Hotfoot, to keep Local Hero busy up front. That should help the closers, among them the connections' Risen Star (G2) victor Girwin (#8, 8-5).
Girvin is not the value among the rallying types (Patch and Guest Suite will be more attractive in that regard), but I feel he's the best horse and will not attempt to be creative here or in the Florida race.