Homeracing

Race flows should help favorites as $25K Kentucky Dream Bet Final Round begins

Profile Picture: Vance Hanson

March 31st, 2017

Saturday marks the start of the Final Round of TwinSpires.com's $25,000 Kentucky Derby Dream Bet. Players already qualified may now participate by placing a $5 Win/Place bet on a single horse in a minimum of four of the final seven Final Round races.

The player with the highest gross winnings among all contest wagers will be declared the winner, and there are tiebreakers. More information and official rules can be found here.

Saturday's $1 million Florida Derby (G1) and $1 million TwinSpires.com  Louisiana Derby (G2) are similar in one handicapping respect: there appears to be plenty of speed on paper to help the likely favorites.

While not a huge believer in Fountain of Youth (G2) winner Gunnevera (#11, 9-5), he's talented enough to beat the field assembled against him at Gulfstream, and should be aided by a pace likely to involve State of Honor and Three Rules, if not others. I'm not a fan of his outside post at 1 1/8 miles, but others would seemingly have to take a big step forward to beat him if he's anywhere near his best.

In the Louisiana Derby, owner Brad Grady and trainer Joe Sharp were clever enough to enter a rabbit, Hotfoot, to keep Local Hero busy up front. That should help the closers, among them the connections' Risen Star (G2) victor Girwin (#8, 8-5).

Girvin is not the value among the rallying types (Patch and Guest Suite will be more attractive in that regard), but I feel he's the best horse and will not attempt to be creative here or in the Florida race.

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