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Homeracing

Rating the favorites in the $309,259 Pick 6 carryover at Turf Paradise

Profile Picture: J. Keeler Johnson

February 19th, 2021

If you’re not playing the Grand Canyon Pick 6 Jackpot at Turf Paradise, then you’re missing out on some seriously enticing payoffs.

The carryover for the 20-cent wager has climbed to $309,259 for Friday’s card, which is certainly reason enough to play the sequence. But sweeping the entire jackpot isn’t necessary to enjoy a profitable day—just look at the results of Thursday’s Pick 6. Four winning favorites and a pair of 5-1 shots swept the sequence, and betting a $2 win parlay across the six winners would have returned just $370.14. Yet the Pick 6 payoff was through the roof, with each winning ticket returning $5,669.28.

For the record, that’s more than 15 times better than the $2 win parlay. With payoffs like these on the line, how can you afford not to play the Grand Canyon Pick 6?

If you want to play along on Friday, here’s an important stat to keep in mind—between Feb. 4 and Feb. 18, favorites prevailed in 26 of the 54 Pick 6 races at Turf Paradise, a lofty 48% strike rate equating to about three winning favorites per sequence. In short, playing favorites is a good place to begin when constructing Grand Canyon Pick 6 tickets.

Let’s examine the six favorites in Friday’s sequence and rate their chances at victory on a scale of 1 to 5:

Race 4: #3 Smiling Angelo (5-2)

Hailing from the barn of hot trainer Juan Silva, Smiling Angelo has won three of his last four starts in front-running fashion. He comes in with strong Brisnet Speed ratings and is dropping in class off a runner-up effort against tougher company at Turf Paradise. Smiling Angelo will be tough to catch under jockey Noel Vigil, a 31% winner when teaming up with Silva.

Rating: 4

Race 5: #8 Tactical Attack (2-1)

Posted a 70 Brisnet Speed rating (tied for the highest in Friday’s field) when finishing second in his debut at Turf Paradise last month. But on that occasion, Tactical Attack finished just a head in front of #5 Memelotsamischief (6-1) after the latter ran off to a big early lead through fast fractions. If Memelotsamischief rations his speed a bit better on Friday, Tactical Attack may be hard-pressed to maintain his superiority.

Rating: 3

Race 6: #6 Articulator (2-1)

Articulator brings a bevy of strong Brisnet Speed ratings into the Walter R. Cluer Memorial for trainer Justin Evans, a 31% winner at Turf Paradise this meet. But Articulator has been campaigning on dirt and finished out of the money in her only previous start on turf, so tackling the lawn on Friday is a big question mark. Keep in mind, Evans is winless with his last 15 starters transitioning from dirt to turf.

Rating: 2

Race 7: Carrie’s Success (8-5)

After finishing fourth and third against tougher company on the Southern California circuit, Carrie’s Success looms as a formidable favorite while dropping down to the $7,500 claiming level in her first start for Justin Evans. She brings competitive Brisnet Speed ratings to the mix and picks up hot jockey Luis Negron, a 40% winner when teaming up with Evans. Best of all, there should be plenty of pace to enhance the late rally of Carrie’s Success. She looms as a potential single.

Rating: 5

Race 8: Starlight Twist (5-2)

This low-level claimer looks like a match race between Starlight Twist and #6 Happy Happy Happy (3-1). Each has beaten the other once at Turf Paradise this winter, and determining which will prevail on Friday is difficult. One or the other should reach the winner’s circle, but the seemingly wide-open nature of this showdown makes Starlight Twist a less reliable favorite than a couple others in this sequence.

Rating: 3

Race 9: Mongolian Lotus (9-5)

Queen of the Green S. favorite Mongolian Lotus has been a winning machine on dirt for trainer Justin Evans, prevailing in five of his last six starts. An 8 1/4-length victory in the Jan. 29 Phoenix S. produced a field-best 94 Brisnet Speed rating, but Mongolian Lotus has never won on grass, and Evans’ winless streak with horses switching from dirt to turf is cause for pause. #1 Smart Set (8-1), 2-for-2 on grass for ultra-hot trainer Marcus Vitali, is a potential upset candidate.

Rating: 3

Good luck!

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