Resident Aussies Brown & Lamb discuss Day 2 of The Championships
While they may not be Statler and Waldorf from The Muppets, the resemblance is not far off. As Andrew and Mitch handicap via WhatsApp, they land on some pretty good tips. Here is their conversation and where they landed for picks on the big day!
Analysis of Day 2 at The Championships
Day 2 of The Championships in Australia promises to be an exciting night of action for TwinSpires horse players. Andrew Brown (AB) and Mitch Lamb (ML) have attended their fair share of meetings at Randwick, and discuss one of the best days on the Aussie racing calendar.
AB: Well Mitch, it's day 2 of The Championships from Royal Randwick in Sydney on Friday night U.S. time, and looking at the fields, it's no wonder they call this carnival the Grand Finals of Australian Racing!
ML: Brownie, there’s nothing better than getting to Randwick early, finding a spot in the members area right near a bookie and the tote windows, and getting ready for a huge day on the punt!
AB: Better still when you find a few winners, and there's 10 of them to be found Friday night. The Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes (Randwick Race 8) looks an absolute cracker. The mighty Winx won this race the last 3 years, and while she's not there this year, it's still stacked with talent. I know you were a massive fan of last year's Cox Plate winner Lys Gracieux, so you must be bullish about the chances of the Japanese runner, Danon Premium?
ML: Well this is how I see the race, and yes, it is a great edition of it. But the decision that needs to be made is whether you’re willing to take around 5-2 to see if Danon Premium is anywhere near his best and can handle a soft track. Because if both those boxes are ticked, then he just wins the race, because what he’s done in Japan is far superior to whatever anything else in the race has done, even though it’s a very good field. I’m more than happy to be in his corner at that price.
AB: As you point out, the soft track is a concern. We know the European runner, Addeybb, will handle the track. His run a few weeks back in the Ranvet was spectacular. He showed guts and determination to rally and defeat Verry Elleegant. That was over the same distance as this, and his time over the last two furlongs was one of the quickest of the day. At 7-2, I think he can beat the Japanese runner. I'll throw Verry Elleegant and Master Of Wine in my boxed trifecta.
ML: I’ll admit he’s the main threat. But let’s be real for a second here. Danon Premium beat Lys Gracieux five runs back, from memory in the pouring rain, and since then has run game seconds to Almond Eye, the freakish Japanese mare, and Indy Champ, their superstar miler. That’s A1, world class, top of the totem pole form. Addeybb and whatever else is here, couldn’t do that with jet packs on their backs. He’d be 2-1 on if the race was in Japan, so I’ll cop the 5-2 here.
AB: So now your true feelings come out! I hear everything you're saying about Danon Premium, but he also hasn't raced since November. With an Aussie race win to his name, I'm happy to stick with Addeybb. To one of Australia's classic races over 2 miles, the Sydney Cup (Randwick Race 7). And it's another import, Young Rascal, who will likely start favorite! You a fan?
ML: I’m a fan for sure. Reality is it’s not a deep renewal of the Sydney Cup. I really can’t see anything other than Young Rascal, or the top weight Mustajeer, winning the race. Maybe there’s small question marks over either of them being genuine two milers, but class wise, they are well above the rest and that should be enough to see one of them prevail. Lean to Mustajeer at the price.
AB: I'm with you here. Mustajeer is the class runner and really isn't carrying that much weight compared to the others. He won the Ebor Hcp in the UK last year, and wasn't disgraced in the Caulfield Cup last October. I feel more confident about him getting the 2 miles than I do Young Rascal. He was hitting the line strongly in the Tancred last start and looks cherry ripe for this. What about the Australian Oaks (Randwick Race 6)? How can anyone go past Colette! She was airborne winning the Adrian Knox last week. I think she'll win again.
ML: She’s the one to beat, no doubt. I think this might turn into a pretty genuine staying test, and that raises doubts for me over Probabeel and Shout The Bar getting the mile and a half. It won’t be an issue for Colette. I do think there’s some fillies with a big chance of being right in it at massive odds...Quintessa was very brave last week when third to Colette after being close to a hot speed and being left in front a long way from home, she’s a big chance for mine at 25-1. Then , Victorian filly Contrition looks a real stayer, she hit the line well late in that farcically run Vinery Stakes and she’s a ridiculous price at 100-1. I’ll be having something non both of them, and working them into exotics with Colette. After taking 2-1 about Colette last week, where she looked an absolute moral, it’s hard to butter up at a shorter price this week in a better field, but she does look the one.
AB: A stayer with a turn of foot is a rare commodity, so I'm sticking with Colette. I think she'll beat Probabeel, and my value runners are Game Of Thorns and Toffee Tongue. In the final Grade 1 of the night, the Coolmore Legacy Stakes (Randwick Race 9), the favorite Funstar gets the job done for mine and I'm giving a chance to Pohutakawa at long odds. Your thoughts?
ML: Traditionally it takes a top class filly to win this against the older mares. Funstar definitely falls into that category. Forget last start, she over-raced on speed in a race where I could have run faster during the middle stages of it, and that proved her undoing when stepping up to the mile and a quarter for the first time. I think she’s more a miler anyway. Drawn awkwardly but I think they’ll be keen to ride her a touch more quietly than what they have been forced to do, so hopefully James McDonald slits in midfield and she gets her chance to let down in the straight. Best roughie is Amangiri for me at around 20-1.
AB: Can't wait for every one of these Grade 1 races. It's going to be a fun night watching all the action on the TwinSpires app and website from the comfort of the sofa. What are your best bets?
ML: My best is going to be Funstar. She only needs some luck early in the race and some clear running in the straight and she’ll show her true colors. Have to wait until the last for my best value and that comes up in the form of Manicure, at odds of probably around 10-1, in the Sapphire Stakes for the mares. Can’t wait Brownie!
AB: I'm going to make Colette my best, for reasons already outlined above. My value play is Oakfield Miss in Race 3. I liked her win first-up and she ran 4th in this race last year at enormous odds. She should be around 20-1. Enjoy the night mate and good luck!
ML: You too mate.